“Misery” - La Plata: Colombia #FM21 — CoffeehouseFM

Previously on La Plata: Colombia, Hugo Ojeda’s Junior won a Closing Stage title.

We play Football Manager to escape reality, and that reality is pretty shit at times. So, it’s only fair that you want Football Manager to produce good moments, or at least more good moments than bad ones.

Usually my save update posts are not reactionary. They’re often written during a period of reflection at the mid or end points of a season, where I take a few days away from the game. But today’s post finds me at a low of ebb, in the middle of a painful Opening Stage that is making me miserable.

Our first season was good, I had won a league title live on stream with my mate Samo, and we played some nice football to boot. These were good moments. Our second season so far has been bad, containing several bad moments…Mourinho-esque, in the sense that a title winning approach suddenly stopped working and was getting found out. Did I ever have a magic tactic? No. Was it masked by good set pieces, a bit of luck and some incredible form? Probably a bit, yeh. I therefore need an intervention, a pause…in order to reflect and try to remedy the misery.

It’s where this blog post takes place, directly in the middle of despair and 14th in the Opening Stage (after 10 games). I’m writing this post in real-time as I play, like a diary I guess - so it’s rather experimental from me. I plan to re-evaluate, respond and [hopefully] recover but I don’t even know if what I will do will work. That’s the daunting part. I certainly think as a ‘creator’, and long term player, I feel as if I should know what to do at all times. But, honestly, it’s not always like that at all.

So, join me in my misery and if not…well, thank you for the hit anyway.

Let’s begin…

Misery: The Scene

I think setting out the crime scene like this will help me try to solve the several atrocities I’ve seen in this Opening Stage. From the onset though, I want to be clear: I will walk away from Junior if we fail on two counts: (1) we fail to reach top 8, and miss out on the Semi Final stage, and (2) we finish bottom of our rather fortunate Copa Libertadores Group. Doing both in my view would be unacceptable, despite the Board being content with simply making the Libertadores Group Stage.

12 March 2022

12 March 2022 was the lowest moment of my save. We had been beaten at home to newly promoted Leones Fútbol Club, who with 0.12 xG…xG’ed me. My attack is stale, and, at the other end any shot we face at goal…we concede. It was similar away in Deportivo Pereira a week earlier, a 2-1 win for Junior disguising the fact that we conceded to the one and only shot at goal. A 0.08 xG shot from Wilfrido De La Rosa. Unlucky? Probably. But when my attack is nullified, suddenly games can be needlessly tight. Wins become draws and draws become…you get it. Defeats.

As you can see, we have lost 50% of games (all comps) in 2022: that’s 9 games out of 18 and means we sit 14th in the league table. Sure, the big wins Vs Petrolero and Bucarmanga show that we can score a bucket load in a single 90 minutes…but something is terribly wrong:

Defence - We conceded 27 goals in 18 games (all comps), which is pretty horrific for a club as big as Junior. Especially when you factor in that we finished as Closing Champions just a few months ago, conceding just 8 in 20 games. I am always one to look for excuses, but I can’t imagine Centre Back Willer Ditta’s €4.4m departure to Club América being the cause and effect of all of this, and I would still maintain that Carlos Henao ought to be a capable stopgap; even just for a season. We also have a new Right Back in Cristian Arrieta (replacing Marlon Piedrahita)…but I still think it’s an upgrade. Our backline should be better. Why is it not?

Ditta Vs Henao (with BPD-D highlighted).

Attack - We said goodbye to 2021 Closing Stage hero Michael Rangel, who left for the bright lights of INTER Miami. In his place we made solid replacements in Santiago Tréllez and Colombian Wonderboy Jhon Durán. The terrific trio of Campaz-Arezo-Cetré remain, but the majority of their goals are missing - just 11 goals between them (all comps). Why?

From January to March, we would predominantly play the Ojeda-Ball 4-2-3-1 DM formation, in rare games (like away in Bolivia Vs Oriente Petrolero) I would play a lower intensity ‘in the clouds’ 4-4-2 to equally disastrous effects. Our set-up has had a few tweaks over time and I kind of feel I lost my way with it, I often make changes in isolation and then don’t revert things back or take a holistic view when I should. To bring you up-to-speed here is how we set up in the home game Vs Leones (12 March 2022):

You’re seeing the above tactic after a few adjustments I made in the few games leading up to Leones, as FM Pressure was kind enough to have a look at it over on Slack. We adjusted the DMs (swapping them over and also changing DM-D to DM-S) and advised not to have a ST role that would roam from position (as this could conflict with the Raumdeuter). Although we got that narrow away win Vs Deportivo Pereira, I still was not happy with how things looked with the three games I tried it. The attack appears out of form and the 12 March home defeat Vs Leones was the final straw (and thus acts as the point at which I break to write this piece).

Misery: The Analysis

So, what’s the plan? Well, I always have a plan…even when there is no plan. I’m going to play slow and stream Comprehensive Highlight matches (aka SemiVirginFM), because the playback means I can catch up on a few things the day after, without being on my gaming laptop. I won’t tell anybody…some of my 1s of Twitch followers may notice, and if they are reading this now then “Hi, that’s why bitches”. In total, that’s fourteen 25-30 minute streams over a 2 week period that will have already happened by the time you read this (10 league and 4 Copa Libertadores). But before we get to see how those games play out, let’s chat FM anal and tactics…dialling in, as if it’s 24 Heures du Mans.

FM Analysis

I’m not a big lover of the Average Positions maps these days, I don’t really find them meaningful…despite a lot of FM content I’ve read using them. Averages can be misleading…I think it’s the case too when you’re recording players’ movements, who inherently run up-and-down a pitch in fits-and-starts. I’d much rather focus on touches, passes etc…things that aren’t averages but actually happened. However, these remain broken in FM21’s Analysis screen, so I’m focusing on a few other bits in order to break down my misery…with the help of two former somebodies, one from Championship Manager fame and the other from the Deep Lying Podcast (RIP). I’ll start with the better known legend.

Hernán Crespo, when managing at Banfield, said something about 3-4 years ago that has stuck with me ever since. I can’t find the direct quote right now, but it was to do with Strikers in a tactic not working. He compared Strikers to being the thermostat of the team, where you can gauge your tactic to see how ‘hot’ it is. It’s true, we often naturally gravitate towards criticising the Striker on a poor run of form…but we really ought to be looking at the supply feeding that striker. But before I look at my own thermostat, I first want to see what has made the AI so effective against me this year. Can I do anything defensively to stop the rot, in order to cool down their strike force? Seeing I’ve finally accepted I need to do something.

What can we glean from the above? Well, former podcaster turned gravy connoisseur, Ed Wilson, looked over the above graphic for me. He said:

“From those assist locations it doesn’t seem like your DMs are providing much defensive security within 30 yards of goal centrally”.

Ed makes a good point. By playing two DMs, I would demand a certain level of protection from through balls. Especially from within Zone 14 which is the Holy Grail for assist making…it’s the sweet spot statistically for your players to get into and create. Good news for the AI, I’ve got an open door for them to come and do this. 33% of goals against me are created from Zone 14. Ed goes on to say:

“MCs will press urgently higher up the pitch than DMs”.

Again, I can’t argue with the guy…I can either push forward the defensive line or consider more advanced midfielder roles at MC. I suppose it was the initial Day 1 personnel I had at DM that encouraged me to go down the route of a deep double pivot. It also feels very South American to have Volantes and DMs…but perhaps it’s not doing us any favours. If I target one area to fix, I think it’s here…because down the wings we seem relatively solid. However, I may want to look at what’s happening at Left Back.

This is enough about countering the opposition and cutting off their supply. I’ve already seen that we’re pretty dominant with the ball with my own eyes, but yet stale at the same time. We need to play to our strengths & create chances more than we need to stop the opposition. So, we flip the assist locations FOR Junior this time round…where are we creating and, more importantly, where are we not?:

I once again gave Ed the Slack DM exclusive of the assists for Junior and here is what he said:

“Slight right sided bias there would hope your AML would have more goals with those crosses from the right...”

The Raumdeuter in my attack last year was terrific (with 16 goals and 23 assists over 55 games)…yet this year Jaminton Campaz has really struggled (2 goals and 1 assist over 12 games). Form could still pick up, however Ed is once again correct in the sense that my right side does seem to be creating goals…just not for him. So, the Raumdeuter is hardly scoring or assisting, perhaps a passenger right now that is making things harder for us. I fire up a screenshot of Campaz for Ed and he likes him as an attacking Inverted Winger:

“He would be a perfect IW-A”

Ok Ed, calm down.

What can else can we glean from the above image?

Attacking variety seems surprisingly good (I was expecting worse).
Something needs to change on the left side.
Personally want more from Zone 14, especially as I have been playing with a No.10 all year (either an Enganche or Supportive Attacking Midfielder).

So, I’m off to the Team Report screen…to remind myself what FM says we’re good at. I wrote a piece for The Byline on this, so I won’t cover old ground. In a nutshell, FM says:

The players have high Composure, good Decisions and Vision/Creativity.
We’re above average, but not league leaders, in five of the 8 Physical attributes.
League leaders for Crossing & Technique.

Old Tactic Vs New Tactic

It’s important to stress that I don’t want to reinvent the wheel. I think changing from a more positive mindset to a catenaccio for example will be too much of a change and could have serious short-term detrimental effects. I want to adapt, taking the above pointers from FM Pressure, Hernán Crespo, Ed Wilson Gaming Ltd and Carlos Valderrama. I also want to limit our noticeable weaknesses and play to our strengths, so on this basis:

Two banks of four. I’ve highlighted movement instructions to help me visualise how it could morph.

In terms of tactical familiarity we remain fluid in all but the roles and duties, as I have left Mentality, Passing and out of possession Pressing as it was in the 4-2-3-1 DM. Things I changed and why:

Moved DMs up to MC. We’ve got a Playmaker holding position who I am hoping has four players ahead of him to pick out. The partner at the moment is a Central Midfielder on Support. I need to keep an eye on how he behaves, I am hoping he just stays central and recycles the ball to the DLP.
I have felt for a while now that Matías Arezo is struggling as the lone forward. I think having an industrious partner supporting Arezo will let him focus on being the main goal threat. He’ll have a Winger crossing from wide, an Inverted Winger cutting inside and a supportive older head in Santiago Tréllez alongside him - who suits a pressing role with Aggression/Bravery of 15 and Teamwork 13 and Work Rate 14.
Shifting the Wingers down is a reaction to moving the DMs up. But both Campaz and Cetré are comfortable at ML/MR. Still, I have shifted everybody up via the defensive line, we may need to watch out for long balls…but I want to counter that obvious soft centre we’ve had so far in 2022. If the opposition playmakers do have the ball, it will hopefully be higher up the pitch and further away from our penalty area.
Removed Work Ball Into The Box and Counter Press, I think it’s best to strip back right now and see how we do without them.

Misery: The Results

I think my FM pen pals know when I get really miserable with the game, and I had a few people check in with me which sounds dramatic but genuinely appreciated! One of them was FM underscore Samo who wrote to me:

“Even a loss every now and again is acceptable, but it’s when it’s a run like this and you don’t know what else to do it’s fucking annoying”.

Very cute, but seriously, it made me realise that I need to grudgingly accept a few defeats in the next 14 games. We’ll be adjusting the tactic and tweaking as we go, and it’s only fair I won’t get this 100% right from the off. We may have less of the ball than before, or have a few off days…but if the chances I create are better and if my soft centre is better protected…then I’ll be happy. Remember: Top 8 in the league, and not bottom in my Copa Liberatores Group. ¡Vamos!

Team Meeting

Before I get to playing games, I feel as if this is a fresh start for me in virtual 2022. I’ve had a few real-life days break from the game…and I’m happy with my thought processes. So, I’m doing the unthinkable…and getting the boys together for a Team Meeting, often deemed a reckless act from what I see on FM Twitter. But why be scared now? I need morale to be higher, because quite frankly we’re in a rut. I set them a little challenge:

Straight away, Matías Arezo is up for it. He rallies the boys and agrees with me, so I go back and tell them that this is “exactly the sort of reaction I was after”. Cue some minor improvements to green morale and body language gains.

March

We’re all set. March concludes with four games: Argentine Primera B and 2021 Copa Argentina Winners Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at home in the Copa Libertadores. Before away domestic trips to Once Caldas & Millonarios and a 30th March tie at home to Envigado. I’ve told myself that I’d break at this point to review the new look 4-4-2.

What a way to kick off…0-0 against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto. The Argentine side did not have a single shot on target, but we were not much better…only managing to get 3 shots on goal with 7 off target. Abel Casquete was the bright spark on the right wing. The positive is that we got a much needed clean sheet (our first in 6 games). But bigger tests await, it’s too early to make changes just yet. The side was experimental, a 17-year-old at Centre Back in a makeshift defence as we rested several players. But the attack is still dull.

Wait a minute, the attack is not dull! After training some Attacking Wing Play and Movement…we just beat Once Caldas 4-1 away from home with an xG total that we’ve not had for weeks (xG 3.05). Young Durán came in upfront with Arezo moved into the supportive Pressing Forward role, and he immediately made an impact. A Durán goal on 45 seconds with the help from a well-timed Jaminton Campaz through ball, who had positioned himself into the half space (Inverted Winger, eh). 21 minutes later and Durán had been released from direct through ball, no need to take a touch: GOLAZO. The Advanced Forward running into space for both goals, this is encouraging. We then conceded to a similar lofted ball over the top a minute later…I didn’t panic but did see a similar direct ball again in the 2nd half so dropped out backline to Standard. Our last two goals were wonderful long shots from our supportive Central Midfielder (Leandro Pico)…being teed up by supportive Deep Lying Playmaker and Pressing Forward respectively. Much, much better!

The Misery Strikes Back. Despite us having a decent attempt away at Millonarios, we fall to a 2-0 defeat. I would say we had the better chances, but the shooting boots were left behind in Barranquilla. The defeat was helped by a haphazard bit of defending from a corner, with Right Back Cristian Arrieta booting the ball off the opposition Striker to make it 1-0 to Millonarios. Then a long ranger from the Millonarios Right Back with 6 mins to go sealed our fate…enough time though to see us hit the post. Santiago Tréllez racing through as an Attacking Pressing Forward (a minor tweak offered by FM Rensie on stream). Damn, just when I thought we could build on that Once Caldas result…we’re brought back down to Earth. Millonarios go 2nd, Junior drop back into 14th.

Before Envigado, there is a seven day break…the first time this season. We’d train a lot of Attacking sessions and I chucked in another Team Bonding…we need to make our home games count in the league now (with just three league home games left and five away). But I am worried, we’ve blanked two games in three with the new look 4-4-2…would we do it again? Nope, in actual fact we scored four again: Junior 4-0 Envigado. We dominated this game, Supportive Pressing Forward Arezo with a 1st half seven minute hat-trick, after Campaz had won and scored a penalty for us. I was rewarded in my continuation of the 4-4-2, with four Clear Cut Chances (shots in excess of xG 0.30) with one being the penalty.

With a night’s sleep and with four games now under my belt with this 4-4-2, is it worth persisting with? I certainly think we’re better off with it than the previous 4-2-3-1 DM. The Millonarios was a bad day at the office, having re-watched the stream I think both goals were not issues I can directly fix, the real issue in that game was that I could not score. We had the better chances and I am glad I did not tweak on the back of this defeat…as Envigado was a solid performance. Maybe the full week on the training ground practicing the attack now sets us up for April, which is pretty busy: eight games, with six of them away (including trips to Argentina and Brazil). April will make or break our Opening Stage. Remember: Top 8 in the league, and not bottom in my Copa Liberatores Group. ¡Vamos!

April

Before the big April Fools home game Vs América de Cali, a side often a thorn in my…side, I would consult with Ondrej (FM Rensie) on my set piece routine. It was good last year (reaching over double figures for goals) but quite poor this year, noticeably too with the 4-4-2. It turns out that switching between tactics is not good for the routines in your set piece creator, something I had in the back of my mind but never bothered to micro-manage. However, in a time where marginal gains are quite welcome, I rebuilt my Near Post routines afresh. In short we have:

Central Defender Diego Braghieri attacking the Near Post as the main threat. He has Bravery 17, Heading 15, Jumping Reach & Strength 14 and Off The Ball & Decisions 13.
To overload this area, Matías Arezo is lurking at the near post too. Heading 16, Off The Ball & Finishing 14, and Jumping Reach & Decisions 13. My next two bravest player would go to the Far Post.
Ondrej recommended trying the inswinging corner, so inverting right footers on left side and vice versa. Ball trajectory is naturally whipping in, I like it.
I also have one guy running in from the edge of the area (the best of the rest for Off The Ball) and then a player with decent First Touch and Long Shots lurking. My second CB (the 17-year-old), has a really poor score Off The Ball of 5…I would rather he made use of his high scores in Positioning, Marking and Tackling (15) by staying back. When he doesn’t play, I can consider tweaking this routine to bring the 2nd CB back into the attacking routine.

Despite not scoring in the first two games with the corner routine…early signs are good. Arezo’s near post flick-on giving back post Durán a great chance to hit the post Vs América de Cali. It could, maybe should have been a goal, but luckily it wasn’t needed: a 3-1 home win. Next up was the 7-hour flight to Córdoba to face Estudiantes de Río Cuarto’s catenaccio. In a game of real frustration, with each side missing a penalty…the man signed up for the continental nights, Santiago Tréllez, scored the vital goal 14 minutes from time. I can’t say it was a tactical masterstroke from me, I tried to get my DLP more involved and advanced by switching to Roaming Playmaker…but I think our win was down to a bit of relentlessness and luck. Still, the history books will only remember the important statistic: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0-1 Junior Club.

Hopefully the history books will forget about the 1-1 away La Equidad, which saw Junior Club never really get going. Obviously, the team were just saving their energy for the 5-0 away win Vs Patriotas FC, a really strong team performance and evidence of a blossoming relationship between Arezo and Durán with their newly connecting green relationship link in the tactics screen. Five games now unbeaten and up to 8th in the league, domestically in form…now onto the penultimate Copa Libertadores Group match.

Atlético Mineiro 3-0 Junior Club. I dropped my mentality to Balanced and played the battering ram of Tréllez up top alongside red hot Durán…but we fell to a 2nd half hat-trick from Eduardo Sasha, who quite frankly plays outrageous in FM21. The defeat in Brazil leaves Junior bottom of the Copa Libertadores Group with a game to go. Nevertheless, we dusted ourselves down and responded back in Colombia with a 4-2 home league win Vs Deportes Tolima. The plaudits would go to hat-trick hero Jhon Durán, but in my opinion the game changed at half-time with Jaminton Campaz’s introduction. A goal and assist against his former club, good to see MythMike™️ still present in my save.

Away against Cortuluá we came up against a 3 central Striker formation and came unstuck (are these still OP?). I really should have countered against it pre-match by playing a DM or tweaking my defensive lines. Instead, I naively backed my 4-4-2; buoyed by the recent good form and simply asked one of my Full Backs to sit narrower. Ineffective. Cortuluá would counter us in the 2nd half with a three on two: Cortuluá 1-0 Junior Club. The final match in April, and the penultimate of the Opening Stage league campaign, was away at Cúcuta Deportivo. Once again FM Misery continues, my soul honestly can’t take much more of this shite. We fall to a 4-3 defeat. We sit 8th going into the final match…only on goal difference to 9th place América de Cali. The next home match, to bring FM Misery full circle, is Leones Fútbol Club away. Would we overcome our demons? Before we find that out, we have to face Alianza Lima at home in the final Libertadores Group game. Lose and we’re bottom of the group, draw and we’ll probably drop into the Sudamericana (providing Atlético Mineiro beat Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at home) and a win would see us dream of the Libertadores knockouts.

One league game to go (unless your Santa Fe and Bucaramanga). — One league game to go (unless your Santa Fe and Bucaramanga who play after the regular season finishes for most due to a Sudamericana fixture backlog).

Remember: Top 8 in the league, and not bottom in my Copa Liberatores Group. ¡Vamos!

May

Misery: Junior Club 0-2 Alianza Lima. We’ve thrown away hopes of continuing continental football into 2022. It turned out in the end that I’d have needed a win, seeing that Estudiantes de Río Cuarto grabbed an unlikely 1-1 draw in Brazil. From looking imperious in the way we went about playing a few weeks ago, we now look feeble all over the side. To the credit of Lima, they came and played football…the same can’t be said for my forwards who are becoming fatigued. We have failed the first of two objectives. Misery’s dagger is implanted in my torso, it only needs to make one final twist and the job is done. On to Leones away…the game that kick started this blogpost and the game that finishes it.

In the lead up to Leones, I encouraged the tired faces around me during yet another Team Meeting. Once again we have green reactions and I schedule in Match Preparation and Team Bonding sessions. On match day, I decided that we’d start on a Balanced mentality…ease our way into the game before seeing if we should take a riskier approach. Four of the match day XI are fatigued, but I choose to start them anyway. Like in the Closing Stage Final 6 months earlier, I want every bit of energy left on the pitch.

0-0 at HT. We moved to Positive mentality, seeing as América de Cali had leapfrogged us by going ahead in the Cali Derby; we were now outside of the Play-Off rounds. However, on minute 49….

Tactical Genius? Probably not. But just like in FM20, Edwuin Cetré saves Hugo Ojeda once again. Back up to 6th in the league table, I’m frantically tweaking like a mad man throughout the rest of the half. We drop back to Balanced, our Deep Lying Playmaker is now on Defend and my heart rate is up at least by 10bpms. This bloody team won’t let me rest easy, it takes until 90+2 until we make it safe: Santiago Tréllez heading in from close range to complete the nervy win.

Junior Club 2-0 Leones. No need to walk away from this club just yet, we’ve turned the domestic fortunes around and qualified for the Semi Final Group Stage. Sing it with me, if only to celebrate getting this far into such a long blog post…

Wolf Of Wall Street GIF.gif — “I’m not leaving”

TL;DR

Too long; didn’t read?

We won a league title last year, but maybe we were not as good as I thought we were. 4 months later we’re awful.
So, I addressed the weakness of a soft centre and changed to a 4-4-2.
We won more than we lost, and this post acts a cautionary tale of how to be less shit at the game.

I would like to thank the guys mentioned previously in this post, for the help and support through my FM Misery. I will be back soon to update on how the Opening Semi Final Stage went and take a look to the exciting future at Junior Club, which I am pleased/thankful to once more be part of.

As always, thanks for reading/sharing/caring.

FM Grasshopper