How 17th Century Japanese strategy can make you a better Football Manager

August 10, 2022

Intro

Inspiration can come from unlikely places. I have a continually expanding list of football literature to read, and whilst they are interesting on the most part; it’s rare for them to get my creative juices flowing. Instead, I often sidestep and read up on other subjects that interest me, and Japanese military strategy is an example of that.

Of course, I’m no expert in military strategy…but the subject of Japan, especially it’s martial arts, has always fascinated me. Miyamoto Musashi, the author of The Book of Five Rings (1645) that has loosely inspired this offbeat FM blog, was a swordsman of the Kenjutsu school. Despite being published in the mid-17th Century, Musashi’s thoughts on philosophy and life through the engagements of battle can not only be applied to many parts of modern day real-life, but also in Football and in Football Manager too.

In this post, I’ll share a quote from Miyamoto Musashi and explain why I think it can make you a better Football Manager.

“The principle of strategy is having one thing, to know ten thousand things”

In a broader sense, this quote (and its wider chapter) highlights the difference between Oriental and Western outlooks on education. Simply put, the East likes specialisms…whereas us in the West like to educate our children to have a broad sense of many specialist areas. Musashi wants the reader to know that total proficiency in one’s pastime/skill can bring about a greater knowledge of other things in life.

Specialise your save

“There’s no link to FM here Tony?!?”, I hear you ask. Well, what if you accept that your new save is about focussing in one area of the game? Be it: being a journeyman, maintaining a philosophy, focussing on transfers as a Director of Football, training for gains or youth development. The staff responsibilities screen, and the ability to delegate can drastically alter your save. I would even go as far as saying that many people who have been absent from Football Manager series for a decade do not know about the levels of customisation to make the game more streamlined. This ought to be screamed from the rooftops to get legacy players (who feel they no longer have the time to play) back into the game. It’s ok to “know one thing”.

Specialise your players

My other Football Manager sidestep is how I now play the game and rate its players. From time-to-time I have managed at a low level; whether that’s Mexico’s 2nd Division (FM20) or Brazilian lower leagues (FM22). By managing in a lower level, you accept that players will be inefficient at certain things. But it’s also worth keeping in mind that so too are the league opposition. Everything is relative. If a Winger has great acceleration and pace, but not much else…he can still be effective in a lower league. A defender with literally no Technicals is fine, just keep his play simple…have him specialise as a destroyer or non-nonsense type player. The players become specialised. It’s ok that they “know one thing”.

“It is difficult to move strong things by pushing directly, so you should injure the corners”

Miyamoto Musashi’s comments here relate to large scale battle, but the principle of what he is suggesting can be applied on the football pitch. Sometimes facing up your strength against the opposition will not be enough. Perhaps you need to find a weakness and alter your attack to “injure a corner” …and thus not engage the opposition head on.

There are several ways to do this in Football Manager. One way is consulting the scouting reports of the opposition each week. Not got a staff member doing that just yet? Get him/her focussed on providing you with one ahead of each game, there may be useful insight included which you can exploit.

Another way is simply a brief squad overview or previous line up analysis. Who’s in bad form right now? Whose condition is weakened by a run of games OR is a player coming back from long-term injury? Who doesn’t match up well against one member of your squad? Align your troops and “injure the corners”.

“The mountain-sea spirit means that it is bad to repeat the same thing several times when fighting the enemy (…) If you attempt a technique which you have previously tried unsuccessfully and fail yet again, then you must change your attacking method”

Miyamoto Musashi quote is based on a chapter around 1v1 sword technique. In 17th Century Kenjutsu, you’d likely have a maximum of two opportunities to change from a failed attack. Repeating it a third time would, in Musashi’s view, lead to a defeat.

In Football Manager strategy terms, this has been a common piece of discourse on the GrassNGear podcast, as Dan and I have often stressed the importance of attacking in a varied way. It’s a common sight, a tactic that has duplicated roles on each side…completely symmetrical. It can work…but you’re relying on the difference of those players through traits and attribute make-up to make the attacks varied. The same could be said for set pieces (Hi Ondrej), having more than one tailored to your side will add variety and could bring about the marginal gain that changes your season.

It would be much better to mix up where, and how, you attack the opposition. ‘Swap Roles’ option is a great technique (and something I wrote about here).

But also consider if you replace players on a like-for-like basis when making in-match substitutions. Do you? I’ve certainly done this before, and it’s only natural to recruit similar players who can interchange easily with those in your squad if the tactic is ‘working’. But sometimes it may be better to take off, for example, a Target Forward and replace him (and his role) with a different style of attack, e.g. an Advanced Forward who will look to get in behind of the opposition. The reasoning here is that the Target Forward may be having a bad game against similarly strong defenders who have nullified his threat, so use the “mountain-sea spirit” and attack variedly.

“People are always under the impression that the enemy is strong, and so tend to become cautious. But if you have good soldiers, and if you understand the principles of strategy, and if you know how to beat the enemy, there is nothing to worry about”

I am guilty of playing Football Manager over cautiously. Miyamoto Musashi’s words echoed in my head for a day or so from reading this chapter, because it rung true. Even in most successful ‘defensive’ teams, there is always a plan to win the match. A route to goal. It is easy for setups to become naturally entrenched in a defensive mindset, with little thought in how to attack. Throw caution to the wind, find the combination that works in your side, and don’t be too cautious.

If you know the three of four ways you regularly want to attack (refer to that mountain-sea spirit as mentioned above), make sure you check that it’s flourishing. Your Attacking players, and the chances they get, are the temperature gauge of how good your strategy is. I’m not talking about number of shots; rather the number of high xG chances per game. If you have confidence in this, then “there is nothing to worry about”.

Concluding thoughts

This post is neither an FM Guide or book review. But it’s intended to act as an aide memoire for me, and to hopefully to serve a purpose in helping others too. The Book of Five Rings was a surprisingly enjoyable holiday read, having only encountered it by chance in a ‘bibliothèque libre-service’ (a pop-up cabinet with books). It’s rare to find English books as good as this in them, inspiration really does come from unlikely places!

Thank you for reading,

Tony / FM Grasshopper

Statistical Fibra in #FM22

July 7, 2022

Welcome back,

It has been a few years since I've properly written about the concept of 'fibra', or even applied the recruitment strategy to a saved game. Since then, the FM discourse around how a lot of people recruit has evolved. Data-led findings to aid decision making is following the same path in-game as it has in real-life, the FM22 Data Hub is an example of that. We, the Managers, are more informed and better equipped to rate players individually or against peers, and it's only going to be expanded upon for future editions of the game.

What is the fibra method?

Simply put, the fibra method is the acquisition of mentally strong players to suit an aggressive and demanding style of football. The players do not necessarily have to be good with the ball at their feet, instead the players within the fibra ideology will hurry and harass by working hard for the team. The players will come together and be worth more than the sum of their parts. The exact set of attributes used is relatively subjective. For example, I've often not muddied the waters with adding Physical attributes (e.g. Stamina) to the set of parameters; but you certainly can. As mentioned a moment ago, for fibra to work it has to go hand-in-hand with a complementary style of football. It's all well and good getting these warrior-like players…but if you're not using them for what you brought them in for, then what's the point? The concept is nothing ground-breaking, and something a lot of people previously did naturally in their saves, but perhaps it was never brought into blogging consciousness until my few early posts back in FM17.

Why revisit it?

When I look back, my previous approaches to fibra are very basic. I solely looked at attributes from the Player Search screen and recruited players over time to fit a tactical system. It worked, notably with Estudiantes in FM18, but just how well? I have so many unanswered questions, and that evolution within both the game and the blogger psyche is what makes me want to revisit fibra again in 2022. Questions like…

Does a Fibra attribute weighted score correlate with player performance, from data that I consider best demonstrates 'fibra'? e.g. Tackles, Distance Covered, Duels etc.
Does fibra continue to translate into the match engine? i.e. does it make a difference in perceived pressing, duels won/loss etc.
Can we statistically recruit fibra before looking at attributes?

If any of this interests you, then please read on…

Part I: Does Fibra correlate with player performance data?

We're simulating a year in FM22 in order to take a look at the data from the top five loaded leagues around Europe (that's England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). Let's be frank about this, a correlation should absolutely exist. If not, what's the point in attributes? Admittedly, there could be my misunderstanding about the effectiveness and/or legitimacy of certain attributes within things 'under the hood' of the match engine. There is also the chance that those warriors are being set out by the AI and held back from fighting their way to success in less aggressive tactical instructions. So, a simulation isn't a deciding factor in determining whether or not fibra correlates with player performance data…but it's a good start.

Simulating a season will give me a partial answer. From there, I'm going to look at taking on management of a team that scores highly in fibra and further instill more of it into their side via player recruitment. I'll also be playing a system which, in my view, will suit the players and I'd be hoping to see fibra 'perform' in the repeated exercise of drawing out the numbers from Football Manager after season two.

So, to recap:

Sim a season (2021/22) of European football. See if players' fibra attributes scores correlate with player performance. Pick a side to manage for Season 2.
Manage a top-level club for the 2022/23 season, recruit or utilise existing fibra and shape the team to make use of it.

Let's have a look by first defining what makes my fibra attribute score (FAS). I'm keeping it simple, and purely mentally focussed*:

Aggression - a highly aggressive player is more likely to tackle hard and leave his mark on a player.
Bravery - a brave player is more willing to put his body on the line and engage in physical duels.
Determination - a highly determined player is more likely to help the team fight back from losing positions or improve his own poor performance during matches.
Teamwork - a player with a high teamwork attribute will follow tactical instructions and complement the attacking/defensive units of the team.
Work Rate - a player with a high work rate will exert more of his physical capability during a match.

Five attributes meaning I am rating players out of 100, therefore giving attributes equal weighting…simply because I don't know the exactness of what makes the most difference in the match engine**. Oddly enough, I don't even want to know…I think I like the mystery around Football Manager and it certainly keeps me coming back each year.

With FAS I am able to see if a higher score correlates with a number of player metrics that could be crucial to my tactical approach, particularly towards the defensive side of the game (although winning headers can definitely be a route to goal for us too):

Yellow Cards per Tackle
Tackles Won Per 90
HDRS A - Headers Attempted
AER A/90 - Aerial Challenge Attempts per 90
HDRS - Headers Won
HDRS W/90 - Headers Won per 90
HDR % - Headers Won ratio
K TCK - Key Tackles
TCK - Tackles per game
TCK R - Tackle Completion Ratio
ITC - Overall number of interceptions
INT/90 - Interceptions per 90
Distance Covered per 90

*Disclaimer: Some/All of these metrics will be influenced by other technical/mental and physical attributes e.g. Interceptions affected more by Anticipation, Concentration and Positioning. But I at least want to see if there is a FAS correlation.

**Another disclaimer is that you could just as easily build a tactic/style first and then evaluate which attributes are making the most impact on certain metrics, using regression analysis. The best ever example I have seen of this in FM circles is when FM Tahiti applied it on his nine (!) years of player data when playing a 442. What I am getting at here is that my study is still very much basic/and from a top-level with pre-defined assumptions of my fibra attributes. Certainly no 9 years of player data performance here; although maybe that’s one for the future 😃

Season 2021/22

So, I loaded the leagues on save creation and went on a one-year holiday meaning the 2021/22 processed in the Full Match Engine (the engine that would have been used if a human player was playing in). As mentioned, we have the top 5 leagues in Football Manager loaded (as rated by FM). Only two of the 2021/22 league winners match reality: PSG in France and Bayern in Germany. Diverging from reality we saw titles wins from Barcelona in Spain, Liverpool in England and Juventus in Italy. A mirrored Champions League Final took place though, only for Liverpool to be crowned the winners in this alternate reality, beating Madrid 3-1 after extra-time. YNWA.

But enough of alternate timelines, how does fibra correlate to the in-game statistics mentioned a moment ago? At season's end, I exported every player from the top leagues who had played 1,000 minutes or more. This equates to circa 1,500 players. I first eliminated the hundred or so Goalkeepers that had played over 1,000 minutes (their role on the pitch is so vastly different that I did not want them to distort the analysis). That being said, fibra is probably an underrated quality in GK…especially in terms of Aggression and Bravery in terms of one vs ones or aerial battles. But let’s save that analysis for a rainy day.

With a revised count of 1,350 players I was able to total up their FAS and then compare that score alongside the different player metrics using a scatter plot. I have already mentioned the many disclaimers with this kind of high-level study, but some observations can be taken:

Minutes Played – A slightly trivial one to start with, but there was a positive correlation of FAS and minutes played throughout the season. There could be many reasons for this, and fibra could be just the tip of the iceberg in terms of AI decision making when fielding an XI…but the higher the fibra, the more minutes you could expect to play (generally).

Tackles won per 90 – there was a slight positive correlation. An aggressive and brave player is probably going to win the 50:50s against less aggressive players, this could be the explanation.

Distance per 90 – eeekkk a negative correlation. At first this surprised me, but then I thought more about it. An explanation for this is that a significant number of fibra players are central defenders (20% of players with a FAS score were natural at CB). This is an outfield position that covers less distance per game, so this would bring any positive correlation down.

What’s interesting is that a positive correlation exists when you exclude all central defenders and look at the remaining 75% of outfield players (as shown below).

Headers per 90 – positive correlation. Bravery will influence the player going for aerial duels, this makes sense to me. Also, many of the high scoring FAS players are more than likely to be used in central roles; the likelihood of engaging in aerial duels (and winning headers per 90) from those central areas of the pitch is significantly increased.

Interceptions per 90 – slight positive correlation, but not enough to certainly say FAS has a huge influence. This supports my preconceived opinion that interceptions are more likely to be influenced by the likes of Anticipation, Concentration and Positioning. Again, further study needs to be done here.

Mini-Conclusion

Overall, the one year simulation of Europe’s top 5 leagues has shown that fibra positively correlates with some player data (Headers and tackles per 90 and minutes played), but not much with some metrics (Interceptions per 90). We’ve also seen that player position is a big influence on Distance Covered per 90 than FAS, which seems logical to me.

We knew where this post was going didn’t we? We’re off to find a club, in order to see if we can utilise fibra ‘better’ than the AI. So, if you want to know which eight European clubs have the most fibra, or whether we can smash our way to domestic glory…then read on.

Part II: Can I utilise Fibra better than the AI?

We’ve seen that Fibra (or my Mental version at least) correlates with certain metrics, but not all and perhaps not as strong as I thought it would. However, we have to accept this was just a one year analysis, and with the AI in control.

Could a human manager (in this case: me), build a system and get better outputs from fibra? As previously mentioned, I’ll be taking a side which is already pretty well stocked in fibra and look to further improve on it via player recruitment; before putting it all together in a tactic.

So, I took the top 150 FAS rated players in Europe (that’s the top 10% - where players have an average of 15.6 in each of the five FAS attribute scores) and looked to see which side had the most representation of fibra orientated players. I then filtered down to a list of eight clubs, who occupied positions 1-3:

1. Lazio - 7 players

2. FC Bayern - 6 players

3. Inter - 5 players

3. Chelsea - 5 players

3. Hertha Berlin - 5 players

3. Juventus - 5 players

3. PSG - 5 players

3. Tottenham - 5 players

(Note - I previously assumed Atlético de Madrid would score highly, but they only have three players in the top 10%: Luis Suárez (82/100), Felipe (79/100) and Koke (78/100)).

There’s only one choice for me in that list, Hertha Berlin who finished 13th in the Bundesliga and who have Estudiantes alumni Santiago Ascacíbar in their ranks (who has a FAS of 86/100). It’s not just Santi embodying fibra, they also have Davie Selke (86/100), Lucas Tousart (81/100), Suat Serdar (81/100) and Vladimír Darida (80/100). The central core of this squad are warriors.

Additionally, from that list above, Hertha Berlin will be the least reputable and with less expectation to challenge for domestic honours. In fact, the season objective is to finish in the top half…I therefore think this is perfect for the siege mentality I would like to deploy on my German counterparts. “Ich bin ein Berliner, baby!”

How did the AI perform?

In 2021/22 Hertha Berlin played a 4-2-3-1 most of the time. A quick review of certain metrics against their FAS showed slightly more positive correlations between fibra and performance statistics mentioned earlier on in this piece. This could mean that the previous AI Manager used a more intense tactic compared to the average tactic used in 2021/22, and in doing so helped justify that fibra matters. Why? Taking a view of Distance per 90: central midfielders Vladimír Darida, Lucas Tousart and Santiago Ascacíbar are putting in a shift and score well alongside Hetha’s attacking left hand side (Mittelstädt/Bjørkan) and right wing back Lukas Klünter.

Note - According to Google (to aid my rusty memory), R2 values of 0.3 are still respectable with real world data. FM statistician, FM Tahiti, also acknowledges that the R2 is secondary in this case due to the correlation being statistically significant.

We saw similar positive correlations in fibra in both Tackles per 90 and Tackle Completion ratios, with R2 values of over 0.2.

Another observation from 2021/22 Hertha player performance data is Davie Selke’s monstrous 15.09 Aerial Attempts per 90, and his ability to win 64% of them as a lone forward. His fibra qualities will certainly be something I look to make use of in the tactic I build.

Certain 2021/22 Hertha player metrics (1,000 or more minutes played).

My 442 Evolution v1-2

It’s fair to say that the first half of the 2022/23 Bundesliga with Hertha Berlin have been everything I love and loathe about Football Manager. There’s been good moments, but also some really bad ones. We’ve had to chop and change roles, instructions and water down what I wanted to initially achieve with fibra. The above tactic can probably be considered a ‘version 2’ of the 4-4-2. Initially, I had no playmaking element in the side, and used dual Pressing Forwards…and it was not working: three draws and a 0-4 defeat Vs Schalke at home. I also feel that I was asking the team to press a bit too much. I had asked four midfielders and two strikers to close down more. Combined with a team instruction of ‘More Often’ or ‘Much More Often’ pressing, the squad was putting in one hell of a shift…for not much of an end result!

I added an Advanced Playmaker (at MC) and a DLF (replacing the supportive PF) to the side after a conversation with GrassNGear ep60 special guest Cleon. This did initially pay off, but a horrid run over September culminating in the 6-1 defeat at Bayern saw me move to a v3 feat. Wide Playmaker (more on this tactic later). Ironically, a Wide Playmaker was initially advised by Cleon…and I told him it’s not fibra-like and duly ignored him.

In terms of Team Instructions, here was my reasoning for using various instructions over others:

Balanced Mentality - I tend to not deviate up and down the levels too much in terms of team mentality, because it changes a fair bit. I will probably be Balanced against teams I expect to beat, but Cautious against more difficult opposition.

In Possession

Pass Into Space - Initially I did not have this selected, but added passing into space during pre-season in order to break through the lines and open our 4-4-2 up a bit more.

Wide - Playing a wide formation, so let’s be wide in possession, stretch play a bit more so we can create space for attackers and complement passing into space.

Floated Crosses [optional] - Usually, I like to have Mixed Crosses selected in order to have a variety of crosses challenging opponents. However, since I have two aerially dominant forwards (Embolo and Selke),I think it makes sense to float the crosses as they stand a decent chance to win the aerial battles. This is something I will add on a game-by-game basis depending on how I rate the opposing Centre-Backs pre-match.

Play For Set Pieces [optional] - I've mentioned about having two players with good free kick taking ability, who both like to curl the ball. I also have the aforementioned forwards who are brave and tall, with brilliant jumping reaches. It makes total sense to me to play for set pieces, to provide respite to our low-mid block against superior teams, but also be a threat offensively against weaker ones.

In Transition

Counter - Initially, I set about playing both Regroup (when possession is lost) and Counter (when possession is won). However, I felt the press wasn't quite working well during pre-season…because we were telling midfielders to fall back into shape but simultaneously also press. It's something that Atletico Madrid's 442 used to do well under Simeone, but I didn't like what I was seeing in FM. So, by just being on Counter it's a bit simpler.

Distribute To Full Backs [optional] - My Goalkeeper has Kicking 11, for this reason I am choosing to send the ball shorter to the Full Backs and we’ll build from there.

Out Of Possession

Lower Defensive Line & Lower Line Of Engagement - We're not a low block, but we're certainly not a high one. I've withdrawn the lines slightly in order to offer a bit more protection against the speedier sides.

More Often/Much More Often (Closing Down) - As mentioned earlier, I initially combined the closing down PI on the midfielders with a wider team instruction in order to press more often. I since toned this down in v3, and instead press ‘Much More’ on a team level.

Opposition instructions are something I rarely use in large quantities, but I thought I would have a go at asking my side to press the central areas like men possessed. This is a semi-experiment after all, so I want them to win the midfield battleground at all costs. No pressing from the front bollocks or limiting the Goalkeepers’ distribution. If the opposition has the ball in their own half, that’s great…they can’t really do much damage there. But if their DMs or midfielders start nearing the centre circle, let’s commit some atrocities and press them, led by the forwards. The wider opposition players are typically the guys crossing from bylines, so let’s keep them on their weaker foot and try to nullify that supply too.

Recruitments

Jonathan Schmid - €3m from Frieburg

Across all 1,500 players from the top 5 leagues, Freiburg’s Jonathan Schmid had the best Interceptions per 90 stat (3.96 per 90, and ranked 12th overall in total interceptions made with 143 for the season) playing as a Wing Back in a 442 in all but one of their Bundlesiga games. He bettered current Hertha Berlin Right Back Lukas Klünter on many metrics, and has a superior FAS (76 to Klünter’s 71). To my surprise, he was transfer listed at $3m with Freiburg missing out on a European place by 1 point on the final day of the season. “One man’s trash is another man’s treasure”, our Director of Football quickly made the signature to bring Schmid to the capital.

In terms of attributes he looks decent, with strong fibra complemented with decent crossing and physical attributes to get up and down the flanks; I hope he can be a threat. Schmid also has the ‘Curls Ball’ trait coupled with good free kick taking ability (15), and will be the 2nd player in the squad to have this godlike combo (alongside Marvin Plattenhardt). We will therefore play for set pieces, knowing that there is likely always somebody on the pitch to guarantee effective deliveries.

Breel Embolo - €6.5m from Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Ex-FM Wonderkid alert! Breel Embolo joins Hetha as our flagship fibra signing. Controversially, he didn’t make it on to the 1,500 player spreadsheet…because he failed to meet the minutes played (885 minutes, instead of 1,000 over 2021/22). However, Breel was transfer listed by Mönchengladbach despite having a solid 6 goals in 6 Bundesliga starts (and 9 subs) from the right wing. His 0.87 goals per 90 and 72% shots on target ratio are better than the Bundesliga average and this attracts me. However, I’m worried I’m a bit blinded by the romance of getting a fallen starboy to perform, but I’m hopeful he can deliver if played centrally.

That’s right, centrally is where Breel Embolo belongs in my team. I personally feel he fits well in the tactic in either forward roles, and has a FAS of 78/100. I’m excited to see if €6.5m turns out to be a bargain!

Valentin Rongier - Transfer Failed

Having assessed the squad over the first few weeks of the season, I felt I could have done with one more utility player on the right side of the pitch. A Deadline Day deal was arranged with Marseille to bring Valentin Rongier in for €13m. He ticked a lot of boxes in terms of fibra metrics, particularly with his strong tackling (Rated 40 with 2.5 Key Tackles per 90) and I liked that he could play both Full Back, Central & Right Midfield. In real-life he is used heavily by Sampaoli in a variety of roles (something I wrote about here), and he naturally suits a pressing style with a FAS of 74/100. However, the nature of doing business late means deals fall through…and sadly this happened when OM could not find a replacement in time.

Hertha Berlin Playthrough (August to December 2022)

Update from 17 league games in - Position 9th - 6 wins/4 draws/ 7 defeats

I don’t want this post to be too save-update heavy, as it is already so long, but we do need to explain what’s happened after 50% of the league has been played. The double benefit of reflecting what happened will also help me identify what I need to do during the two-month break due to the 2022 World Cup. I will start with four positives first, before moving on to four negatives…

1st in conversion rate (15%), due to only four other teams taking fewer shots than us (10 shots per 90).
4th best attackers in the league with 27 goals (1.59 per 90).
4th best at gaining possession (1472 occurrences/86 per 90).
5th in terms of headers won (983 headers/11 per 90).

The negatives…

In contrast to the first positive I listed above, a negative is that we take too few shots. Averaging 10 shots per 90 is due to my instructions, simply put: our attacks need to be more common.
We allow the opposition to take too many shots on goal, and too many on target (7 opposition shots on target per 90). Whilst our lower lines allow the opposition closer to goal, the shots on target we’re given up mean our approach is now questionable.
We are the 3rd worst for conceding (1.88 goals against per 90). This hurts.
I thought this side would be effective from crossing, and whilst we’re crossing a lot (30 attempted crosses per 90), we’re only completing 22% of them (6.7 per 90). The tactic is encouraging something I initially thought we’d be decent at, but we’re not.

In a league of heavy metal pressing football, our lower lines are not really working. 9th is bang on the Board requirements (top half), but there’s an opportunity to recruit wisely in January and tweak a few parts of our game in order to aspire to be better.

I certainly feel we need a creative player, preferably a left footed playmaker that could cut inside from the right wing and play that Wide Playmaker role nicely. Creativity is not something I recruited last transfer window, and now I’ve assessed the squad further…we’re crying out for somebody who can move between the lines and create clear cut chances.

I’ll therefore be running the numbers once again on the 2022/23 season data on players who have played 500 minutes or more from the top 5 leagues in Europe. I will deviate from the fibra focus somewhat (but I’ll be keeping FAS in mind at all times), by looking for attacking metrics like Chance Created per 90, Assist per 90, Key Passes per 90 and Dribbles per Game.

I filtered on: At least 1 Chances Created per 90 and At least 0.3 Assists per 90. Then looked at those metrics alongside Key Pass per 90 and Dribbles per game. You will see from the above that all targets are from within the Bundesliga, probably because I had the filter of only interested players (selected as ‘Doubtful’).

It’s a great list, and there’s a top three for me (all coming with relatively the same fibra).

Amine Harit is on big wages, but he’s young and attainable with an active minimum fee release clause of €10m. He tops the Assists per 90 and is clocking up modest amounts of Dribbles per game.
We also see that Louis Schaub is a statistical god at the moment in the Bundesliga, with ridiculous chances created per 90 and 2nd best for Key Passes per 90.
Perhaps the most romantic signing is Ondrej Duda. He’s ex-Hertha, and although I’m not sure the circumstances of his exit, it could be a potential homecoming? He is 2nd best for chances created, behind Schaub.

Whilst I am aware of the chances being boosted by set pieces, such as corners, the inclusion of other metrics highlight other areas of playmaking…and I’m hopeful any of the three will do a decent job for me as the side’s creator. Who did we get?

The Creator

Louis Schaub is signed for €6m! After deliberating extensively, I actually went for Amine Harit first of all because I felt he had the higher ceiling being 2 years younger than the other 27-year-olds. But Amine wanted a much higher wage than his current deal. So, we get Schaub for half the price and on a wage of €2m per annum. A yearly €5m difference in salary compared to what Harit wanted! 🤯

My 442 v3 (January to May 2023)

v3 continues to use two banks of four, mainly to maximise the amount of fibra I can get in the side. A 2-month injury to Breel Embolo, and continued ankle issues for Krzysztof Piątek, encouraged me to move to a Supportive Striker-Poacher relationship up top in the end to try and get a Davie Selke and Stevan Jovetić partnership firing.

After another period of tweaking after the winter World Cup break, I feel like we finally got into our groove moving into the last quarter of the season. What’s now changed?

I pushed the lines up a bit, it should reduce the number of shots on target against us. We’ll also press a tiny bit less as a result, we’re diluting our fibra but maybe I need to balance our qualities?
Passing is now shorter, so I’ve returned to standard width. We’ll see if this can bring about better offensive chances, giving the Wide Playmaker plenty more options in attack and hopefully more one-twos/interchanges.
I have changed the Right Back to a Wing Back, making full use of the playmaker role cutting in and providing him with definite offensive support on the right hand side.
I’ve also ditched the left sided Winger (and a % of crossing threat), instead we’ll have an Inverted Winger who will be cutting inside and moving into central areas with the ball. He has a supportive Wing Back behind him.
The Central Midfield is more balanced, and as much as I loved the CM-A’s previous performances (in v1) or feeling that AP-A could offer more (v2)…there were times where they were too advanced and ahead of play, offering a gaping hole for the opposition to exploit*. Eventually I swapped the more offensive CMs around, because the CM-D covers the Wide Playmaker’s freedom to roam around and offers a lot more protection.

*This was a huge example of cognitive bias for me in Football Manager. I remembered the CM-A’s key goals and deep runs…but a lot of what made us vulnerable was our soft centre due to the CM-A’s high positioning, which I often overlooked. Since toning it back a bit, I’m now seeing a better team performance.

Overall, we came very close to securing a European spot and I felt with the momentum we had we could have made it if the league was 1-2 games longer! We also got to the DFB-Pokal Semi, losing out to eventual winners BMG. A great season? Not quite, but an improvement on 13th place and a step closer to Europe with minimal expenditure.

But what about fibra?

Data Findings

Here are some summary findings from the 2022/23 season:

I gave 1,000+ minutes to a greater range of players compare to the AI of last season, and although some were lower fibra I kept the squad’s average at last season’s score of 72 out of 100.
The side made more key tackles (9.8% increase) and interceptions (4.85% increase) in 2022/23 (compared to last year). We are also covering a greater distance in matches (9.69% increase).
We did not tackle as much (despite more being Key than last year) - a decrease of 3.34%, and we contested fewer aerial duels too.
If you look at the sub-70 FAS players, you can see they underperformed in metrics against higher FAS peers (who obviously have the more combative positions/roles in the side).

(Certain 2022/23 Hertha player metrics (1,000 or more minutes played).

Conclusion: Of course, I wanted this post to prove that fibra is all powerful and that I could use it better than the AI. In some ways I did, in other ways not so well. I had to adapt our approach somewhat during the season to get results. Our lower lines, and tailored press (as limited as it is in FM), simply were not working as well as I hoped. Perhaps it would have with better players, or more focussed recruitment over time. We have to accept this was a one season project, and also accepting that I didn’t want to achieve success with a high press gegen tactic, commonplace in the FM content creation sphere.

I guess my conclusion is that fibra worked best for Hertha Berlin when it was in moderation - place it into your team in the roles that matter. For instance, the lack of playmaker (and my refusal to use a role like Wide Playmaker simply because I felt it didn’t work hard enough) held us back until I corrected it. Creativity and unpredictability was needed and the signing of Louis Schaub gave us that for the 2nd half of the season….complementing the fight we already had in the squad.

TL;DR

What have I learnt? Well, I’ve learnt that (1) Fibra correlates positively with certain metrics and (2) that you can use those data metrics to recruit high performing fibra intensive players (e.g. Schmid). However, I didn’t quite get those performances throughout the whole squad in a one season playthrough with Hertha Berlin. One season isn’t enough…maybe as a philosophy we need to judge and reflect further down the line. 3, 5…maybe 10 years of constant recruitment and training?

This has been statistical fibra. I’m sure we will come back to it again one day, thank you for reading 👊🏻

Tony / FM Grasshopper

"Heir to the Empire" - Faceless #FM22

June 10, 2022

Previously in Faceless, Cuiabá achieved Série A survival.

Natasha

Cuiabá, Brazil

"If I loved you any less, I would have stayed"

The words came out of the metallic mask in a muffled manner, but Natasha Sibiski instantly deduced who sat in front of her. The voice belonged to Ángel Bastardo, although everybody else in the room only knew him as The Faceless: the protagonist of an increasingly popular urban legend circulating the continent. The rumours spoke of a dead body that washed up on the riverbank of Manaus: a corpse, nameless, faceless, that had floated down the river, shunned by The Shinigami. It was thus that the legend of The Faceless began: Faceless who rose from the dead and walked among the living; Faceless who went on to manage teams along the Atlantic coast, resurrecting many a football club from relative obscurity, before finding notable success in Brazil's Serie A, with Cuiabá. It was around this time that Natasha began to suspect who the masked wanderer was. Seeing him on a televised match made her leave Ruslan Chepiga in Gibraltar and head back immediately to the Americas.

"If I loved you any less, I would have stayed", The Faceless’ words echoed in Natasha’s mind. He continued:

"I was no father to you, Isabella Bastardo. That’s your real name. I left you with your Russian mother, a sister to Ruslan Chepiga. We watched over you in our different ways: Father and Uncle. I am sorry".

Natasha was unravelling her ancestry, along with the rest of the room's occupants, which contained various carers of the masked man. He was sick: her father. Now a dying man, he was nothing like the Ángel Bastardo she once knew.

An uncle too: Ruslan Chepiga. She digested the news of being both a Bastardo and a Chepiga, and it all strangely made sense to her now. The payment for her law degrees which no single working mother could ever afford, the protection she was always given from Hugo Ojeda, and the care provided by some of the most ruthless men in the world.

"Come with me. Come with me back to Ruslan and we will take revenge against Hugo Ojeda", she implored. The emotions were welling inside her, but no sooner did they rise than they were pushed aside in favour of stillness of mind. Was it her Russian coldness or her newfound Argentine fibre? Natasha could not tell…but she held her emotions in check regardless.

The mask facing her shook from side-to-side. "No. Only complete forgiveness from my people can end my suffering. YOU are my people, Isabella. I seek no revenge. Simply forgiveness and a merciful end. Please end the waning magic that is barely keeping me alive".

A male carer in white robes passed a blade to Natasha. His eyes gestured to her as they travelled from the blade’s edge to The Faceless' body, making sure she understood. The blade's hilt featured the plains of the savannah and depicted a bear and a lion chasing several bats and snakes into a jungle. Natasha contemplated the meaning it might have held for its creator, who had carved the intricate design.

Approaching Bastardo, she pulled back the blade before piercing it through his torso in one swift motion. “I’m sorry this happened to you, and I forgive everything”, she said, withdrawing the blade with surprising ease. It was as if no tissue or bones existed, and no sooner had the blade been withdrawn than the room was bathed in white light: a light so bright that Natasha had to turn her head away from Bastardo’s body and shield her eyes with her free hand. One or two seconds passed before the light quickly dimmed, and everything in the room could be seen again. That is, everything except the body, for only a mask and a set of robes remained on the chair that had seated Ángel Bastardo.

Hugo

Barranquilla, Colombia

Hugo Ojeda sat at his desk bemused as the bats took flight in the day, squealing past the high-rise apartment in central Barranquilla. Thousands upon thousands of the nocturnal winged mammals scaled up the building, just centimetres away from the tower’s glass façade, causing several people on the floors above and below to cry out in panic. The bats who had now risen above the Barranquilla skyline veered towards the sun, blocking it out temporarily as the sky turned black. It only lasted one or two seconds, but long enough for Hugo to ponder if something terrifying had happened elsewhere.

His left hand turned to his pills, whilst the right hand quickly reached for his whiskey.

Ángel

River Negro

As the blade entered his body, he was instantly transported back to the River Negro and was looking at the faces of The Shinigami once again. Their eyes burned a bright purple under the night sky. But unlike the first time, The Shinigami reached out for him now, as the Negro's current carried him closer towards their reach. With his bloodline secured through Natasha, the heir to his empire, there was no reason for the Shaman's magic to continue keeping him alive.

The Shinigami had him now, and this was the end.

Notes from the Editor

From Uruguay to Brazil, and all the bits in between, my La Plata series has come to an end. I set out in 2019 to have a creative arc that spanned three editions of Football Manager (FM20-FM22)…and I never would have predicted the World would have changed so much during this three-year-period. But I suppose the one constant has been the ability to release creatively with words, and I thank readers for the odd message or email throughout this period; telling me they have enjoyed the story etc. It’s been really appreciated. I also have to thank Arun and Chris, who have been a constant soundboard of ideas and have offered to sense check some [probably most] of the pieces that I write. Thank you guys, you are amazing.

But CreativeFM from me will be paused. I have not shut all the doors in the story, whilst Hugo Ojeda and Natasha (now Isabella) remain ‘alive’, but Ángel Bastardo is finally put to rest. But boy, did we have fun right? I am delighted I was able to set Hugo Ojeda up to be the heir to the empire in FM20, only for Operation Isabella to really be about the character that arrives a year later in FM21 cycle. Everything has been deliberate, most things foreshadowed and lots of unreliable narration to keep readers on their…thumbs.

I hope, if you have read this far, you have enjoyed it as much as I had fun writing it.

Thank you,

Tony / FM Grasshopper

"The Gondor 3-5-2" - Faceless #FM22

May 30, 2022

Previously in Faceless, Cuiabá recruited three players ahead of a return to Série A.

Intro

It’s 2025 and Cuiabá are back in the big time of Série A! The Board’s aim is to “fight bravely against relegation”, and with very little money available to recruit players that fight looked like a real possibility. However, I had a couple of ideas to avoid impending doom:

Conduct sensible recruitment by being data driven, something I wrote about last time on the blog.
Play a different brand of football, moving from 4312 to 352 with a DM. Something I will write about today.

Would we pay the price of our frugalities in the transfer market? Or would those signings slot into the First Team, in a new system that could do enough to survive? If any of this interests you, then please read on…

The Gondor 3-5-2

There’s a school of thought that would have recommended playing the same style of football that got us promoted from Série B to Série A. After all, the football was good and Cuiabá steamrolled their way to promotion with the 4312 Gold Rush tactic. But my reason for switching to be more conservative is twofold.

(1) The gulf in class between the top 10 Série A sides and the bottom 10 is clear to see. Cuiabá are ranked 19th in terms of salary per year ($6.11m), with 13th ranked Atlético Goianiense paying double that amount ($12.29m). For added context, rank 1 Flamengo pay $47.36m per year on salary with a further four sides paying over $20m on salary per year.

and

(2) The Board have revised our club visions, and now want us to play more defensive solid soccer in a counter attacking style:

So, I immediately knew that I needed to change the 4312 as it was contrary to what the Board wanted in terms of Club Visions. In the previous 4312 tactic, our GK slowed the pace down…we played it out from the back and the team was passing it shorter. With an AM too, we were top heavy, so our starting shape needed to change to try and meet the defensive solid target. Revised club visions and their contextual guidance provided a nice, and welcome, challenge for me in FM22.

Player Roles

If you wanted to go back and compare Gold Rush with Gondor (naming rights to be explained later), then you would see that the majority of player roles are the same between the two setups. This is an evolution of my previous 4312 tactic, not a diversely different system with a whole new squad. I did not want the tactics to be too dissimilar (in case I needed to revert back to 4312, which I did on three occasions over 2025 against lower league opposition in Copa Brasil). Gone is the AM, who is replaced with a Half-Back - one of my most loved roles in recent Football Manager editions. I used the HB role extensively in FM21 with Junior Club (read here) and Ondrej/FM Rensie wrote a nice piece on it during the FM20 era (read here). This role essentially widens the CBs, and drops in to make a back-three shape. This means we can push the wing backs higher up the field and also give licence to a couple of the two central midfielders to get forward. Obviously, I’ve opted for another cult favourite role in the CM-A - who will make ridiculous surges from deep, and the supportive Mezzala who will move into channels and provide some width. To add a sprinkle of counter attacking intent, we’ve got a Sweeper Keeper and a Ball Playing Defender. This in itself isn’t overly counter attacking, but I’ve changed some Team Instructions to help with that…

Team Instructions

We still press more often. But when the ball is won back, we’re now playing on the counter. We’ll pass into space and we’ve got the Sweeper Keeper distributing quickly. Starting Mentality is Balanced, which I predominantly used throughout the 2025 season, however I would drop down to more cautious mentalities if leading in the last quarter of matches. It’s worth nothing that I hardly ever went ‘up’ the mentalities towards Positive or Attacking…when I did I felt we played awful by making poor decisions on the ball and rushing our chances.

I’ve called this a 3-5-2, but in reality it is not so simple. Sometimes the DLF dropped deeper than the CM-A, sometimes the CWB is a Winger, sometimes there is an overload on the right side of the penalty area between Mez and WB etc etc. The shape is fluid.

Season 2025: Série A

Equipped with the 352, we managed to secure a comfortable 10th placed finish (Copa Sudamericana qualification) in Série A. Some stats from the season:

We were never lower than 14th at any point of the season. A rough patch in June made me think we’d be sucked into a relegation battle, but luckily we grabbed a few wins even in the dark moments in July-October. Seven of our 15 defeats were by one goal, showing that we did relatively well not to get hammered by the big boys…Grêmio aside 🤮
Our 16 wins were split nicely between home and away (8 each), meaning we were never afraid to pick up points away from home.
Luciano Gondou, our General Manager signing from last time out, was the league’s 3rd best scorer with 18 Série A goals. A $5,075 loan signing from the Argentine 2nd division who has been absolutely devastating at times in either of the two striker roles (Deep Lying Forward or Poacher). I’ve named the 352 tactic ‘Gondor’ in his honour, because that’s the nickname I’ve given him in my head. He is amazing.
We outperformed xG (+4), xGA (-4) and xPTS (+4). Credit must go to our Goalkeeper signing using Stag’s calculator. Phelipe Megiolaro came on a free from the Brazilian 3rd Division, jumping up two leagues and finishing in the top right of the GK Save Performance scatter graph. He made a lot of saves and saved most shots.

Sadly, we did not meet the defensive soccer club vision. We were on track to meet this for most of the season, but the Board become ‘disappointed’ after the 7-3 hammering given to us by Grêmio and failures to keep a clean sheet in the final eight games of the season. However, the counter attacking style has been achieved and if I had to choose between the two I would have chosen to meet the style of football…rather than the defensive stats. I’m sure further investment in better defenders would address this (as hinted at earlier, defeats were marginal at times like the six 0-1 defeats).

Have we Moneyball’ed?

Players

Now for a brief statistical review of a few player roles, effectively flipping the Zealand process on its head by looking at our own side’s performance: exporting player search results, (ensuring that Cuiabá are not excluded), and then filtering on my side:

Both Deep Lying Forward and Poacher roles had the highest non penalty xG in the whole league. The aforementioned Luciano Gondou getting 15.95 npxG and Rodrigo Farofa ranking highest in Série A with 16.4 npxG. That’s a brilliant outturn of xG for relegation fodder such as ourselves. Perhaps with even better creators supplying them in the 352, both roles could easily get 20+ npxG in Série A.
The Wing Backs in the 352 tactic are the most common interceptors (CWB - 3.14 per 90, WB - 3.69 per 90) and tacklers of the side (CWB 1.89 per 90, WB - 1.8 per 90) . Perhaps their stats are heightened by being the sole wide players (effectively meaning more duels), so getting competent 1v1 players in these positions would be logical if you’re using this tactic.
My Central Midfielder on Attack has a very high Key Passes per 90 stat of 3.6. He’s basically a No.10 in all but starting position, so get a creative player in this position and watch him unleash sexy football on your foes!
The Half-Back role is naturally getting through some serious passing stats, as it looks to recycle possession and start moves from the base of our midfield. It’s good then that the two players who predominantly played here have Passing % of 96% and finish up the season with the highest completed passes per 90 from Cuiabá players (63 and 51 completed passes per 90 respectively). The Free signing of 36-year-old Víctor Cuesta, who was our first choice Half-Back, looks to have been a shrewd bit of business!

Disclaimer: end of year statistics are slightly inflated with some of these first teamers playing a few games in the State Championships, albeit for the likes of Moneyball signings Cuesta, and Gondou their involvement was minimal in this tournament.

Team

According to my Data Hub analysis, the 352 faced 11 formations over the course of the 2025 season and did ok against the most common variant in Brazil: 4231 wide (played against 62% of time) with +12 CCC (For/Against). Gondor was most devastating against a 442 (played against 13% of the time), where the 352 produced a clear cut chance every 36 minutes. Despite a numerical advantage out wide and in favour of the AI, our central overloads proved to be too effective against 442s as the goal type analysis below shows.

The area where we make most of our assists is in central areas outside of the penalty area (equating for 47% of goals), with 56% of goals coming from through balls. There are LOTS of third-man runs, inherent in a narrow formation with two midfielders linking up with the two strikers. Recently, Chris/FM Old Timer wrote about the concept really well here. One worry however is the left-hand side, because despite playing with a CWB on this flank, only 6 assists were made from here. It’s doubly worrying when you consider that this is the side most exposed by the opposition, as detailed in my next paragraph.

The weakest area for assists locations against my Cuiabá side is sadly the left-hand side which features the CWB. 34% of goals (total of 14) were crosses from the left flank. To improve defensively I could tone down that player to a Wing Back and/or consider switching the BPD to the other side, if see myself exposed in this area. It’s perhaps the one side of the tactic that isn’t quite right at this minute, and something that would need tweaking going into another season. However…I’m just not feeling it.

“Not Feeling It”

I have enjoyed this extension from The MLS Save. Sampaio Corrêa proved to be a real challenge in 2023, and Cuiabá 2024-2025 has allowed me to experience promotion and apply some of the data driven recruitment as a carry-on from what I did with Stag at Inter Miami. But I also know when to stop playing this game, and for the first time in about 7 years I’m finishing up save updating before the English Summer Holidays.

Continuing in Série A with Cuiabá just doesn’t appeal to me, whether it’s the league or FM22 in general, I’d rather park the journey here and seal The Faceless’ fate with a creative conclusion [coming soon]. Once that’s done I will likely take a break and do other bits IRL or within other video games™. I’ve still got a couple of FM22 bits I could consider doing and coming back to write, but they’ll be standalone pieces outside of this wonderful save universe; which I have had the pleasure of sharing with @FMEadster since November last year.

Thanks to everybody who has read these Brazilian updates, and I’m hoping they’ve been a good follow after the post-MLS stuff we did earlier on in the cycle.

Thank you,

FM Grasshopper

“Original Pirate Material” - Faceless #FM22

May 10, 2022

Previously in Faceless, Cuiabá Esporte Clube returned to the top flight of Brazilian football.

Intro

Welcome back, Reader.

The English language is a pirate language. I don’t mean that “Ahoy, Me Hearties!” lark, I’m talking about how the English language was formed over hundreds of years of invasions/occupations, feudal societies, enlightenments, and the creation of a national identity. To give you just one example, take our meat. When animals are reared on farms, they keep their Old English names: cow, pig, and sheep. But when they are cooked into dishes, we use an Anglicised French word: beef (beouf), pork (porc) and mutton (mouton). The English language takes bits from other languages and passes it off as its own.

Why am I telling you this? Well, it’s a bit like my recent FM22 FMing. I’m taking three approaches to recruitment from others, and shamelessly passing it off as my own* (🐄🐖🐑). I am calling it Original Pirate Material.

Disclaimers: I should mention that this blog isn’t going to uncover an either footed 17-year-old Mali Wonderkid from Timbuktu and scream MONEYBALL at you. I have a limited Scouting Package in Brazil (Middle Tier: Série A, B and C), and I am filtering on players based in South America who have played at least 1,000 Minutes in 2024.

*Not really, full credit is below.

Zealand’s Moneyball™ 🐄

“Moneyball. It’s a recruitment concept that’s well known, and which has been adopted by a lot of FMers over the years”, something I said on the blog a few months ago. Putting FM data into spreadsheets, particularly for a lot of FM Bloggers, has been a pastime for…well, decades.

However, it takes a well-known FM YouTuber sometimes to bring it into full public FM consciousness. Zealand Shannon has done exactly that, with a Moneyball YT video now over 150k views at the time of writing. What I like about the video is that he references the inspirations, references what is not quite perfect (yet) and lays out in simple terms how to “Moneyball” your save:

Click on the image to be taken to Zealand’s video. CNTRL + P to print this blog post.

Zealand’s offering is one I felt more passionate data savvy Bloggers should have done years ago, via a download on a blog (and apologise if they did and I just missed it). Zealand has simply provided a Search Filter (with the data parameters included) and shared a Google Sheet (with formulas) for you to download. Zealand and co. have not invented something new here, but they do deserve credit for opening it up and making the approach easy-to-use (for simpletons like me):

Download Player Search filter and add it into your game. Run a search on whichever parameters you see fit e.g. Position, Age, Attributes etc.
Export said Player Search results, and place into a Google Sheet.
Check Google Sheet for statistical goodness.

I fancied giving it a try, so I used a modified Player Search based on the Half-Back role’s attributes, but I wanted to be agnostic in terms of who came up…so I did not set a Position within the search criteria. It did not bother me if Natural defenders came up in the search results, rather than natural DMs. Versatility would be a good thing and, depending on the game situation, this role could easily slot in at CB whilst I pushed a player up to AM (mimicking the 4-3-1-2 from last season which featured a No.10).

Therefore I set Half-Back in the search and did not expect players to meet 100% of the attributes; rather I set only 10 of the 16 attributes to match with a score of 13 or above. This meant a lot of CBs appeared in the search, but one name jumped out: Víctor Cuesta.

Using Zealand’s Google Sheet, I was quickly able to see that:

Cuesta had the highest Interceptions Per 90 for any top league player (2.54 per 90). Something I rate in any DM or CB position.
He ranked the 2nd best for Headers Won Per 90 for any top league player (10.63 per 90).
He was available for Free.
He is Argentine (meaning he’d become the 5th one in the current squad, but who is also a naturalised Brazilian status meaning he does not add to our FGN quota 🥰).

Now it was passed over to the General Manager, could he do a deal without me? Nope: he failed, but a new FM22 feature 🚨 allows me to take on the negotiations and keep the deal alive. I did just that, Víctor Cuesta signs on a one-year deal at $260k per annum.

36-year-old Víctor Cuesta takes a significant pay cut to join us!

FM Stag’s Goalkeeper Calculator™ 🐖

Personally, judging Goalkeepers is always a challenge for me on FM. Maybe it’s because the muscle memory just doesn’t exist, where the eye isn’t sharp enough to focus in the right places on the attributes screen. You see, I hardly sign Goalkeepers. Usually, it’s a case of finding one and then sticking with him for many seasons. When I discovered FM Stag had a Goalkeeper Calculator, I immediately asked to use it. The spreadsheet takes a combination of metrics, weightings + adds/subtracts to give me a GK Rating to work towards.

In this search, I simply wanted a Goalkeeper that had played at least 1,000 minutes in 2024 and was based in South America. The export was large, but because of the GK Rating, I filtered down to a Top 5…

Due to budgetary constraints, it was likely I could only afford the three Brazilians in the search (Megiolaro, Ricardo and Arias). So, it was over to the General Manager to tempt the best rated: Phelipe Megiolaro, who was available from Série C side Ituano on an expiring contract…

It’s a big gamble, putting your trust in the stats like this. But Phelipe Megiolaro has:

The best Saves per 90 out of the top 5 targets.
A strong Average Rating of 7.24.
Played every minute of Ituano’s successful promotion to Série B. He’s in a side that leaks a lot of shots, but he saves them…and they get promoted.

Megiolaro will jump two leagues up to Série A and will play as our Sweeper Keeper…as we look to play a more Counter Attacking style in 2025 during the Série A campaign.

Dan Gear’s General Manager/Director of Football Method™ 🐑

Read more about Dan’s approach here: https://www.footballmanager.com/the-byline/using-your-staff-recruitment-fm22

In this save, my current GM’s hit rate stands at 50%.

Víctor Cuesta - Failed.
Phelipe Megiolaro - Successful.

However, could the GM do one final deal from a recommendation provided by the scouting setup? It was over to the Short Term/Priority Focus screen to bring in another Striker within the Scouting Centre. The parameters: somebody who could play Deep Lying Forward aged 23 or below (to meet the Board’s club vision). Luciano Gondou topped the recommendations with an A (“sign whatever the price’) rating, and the reports indicate he is an adaptable and consistent performer. His contract expires towards the end of the calendar year, so I could have perhaps negotiated a cheap transfer deal. However, I instructed the GM to go for a loan deal because his current low wage means we can get him on a low-risk 8-month deal, to see how he does first.

Fall back to Minas Tirith, he’s only gone and made the deal!

The GM got the deal done. Gondou is hopefully going to get a lot of game time, because he covers both the DLF and Poacher roles in my tactic. He’s decent in the air, can finish with two feet and makes good decisions…well done GM!

Season 2025: State Championships

My blog frequency will slow down a bit once I hit a full Série A campaign. I’m therefore unsure how best to capture a Brazilian season. Blog a whole calendar year, or cut it in half like a bit of undercooked cow? I have not decided yet, however I am here right now to let you know how the 2025 Mato Grosso State Championship went. It’s my first taste of genuine “stat padding” and I bloody loved it…

Cuiabá Esporte Clube: Mato Grosso State Champs 🏆

There was mixed success for the new signings: Víctor Cuesta missed most of the states with an ankle injury, making just 1 start and 6 substitute appearances. However, Phelipe Megiolaro kept 12 clean sheets in the 15 State fixtures. He hardly needed to make a save as we dominated games! Luciano Gondou arrived late in the States but managed to bag 3 goals in four knockout round games. The real hero however was Alan Empereur (who I shared last time out on the blog). The Emperor bagged 12 goals in fifteen matches from Centre-Back, with a mix of back post headers, freekicks and penalty area skirmishes. Maybe next year I’ll to play the kids so that games are more competitive!

Now, my Cuiabá side move into the Série A. The Board’s aim is to “fight bravely against relegation”, which sounds ominous, but let’s hope our new signings complement the existing squad and we do ‘enough’. Enough would be 16th place (out of 20 clubs), anything less would mean The Faceless moves on. Again.

As always, thanks for reading/sharing and caring. Faceless will be back 🎭

Tony / FM Grasshopper