"Data-led Scouting in Major League Soccer" feat. @FM_Stag - La Plata: Vice #FM22

Previously on La Plata: Vice, Inter Miami made the 2021 MLS Playoffs.

Intro

“Moneyball”. It’s a recruitment concept that’s well known, and which has been adopted by a lot of FMers over the years (in varying levels of accuracy). However, I am here today alongside pen pal FM Stag, not to re-introduce Moneyball as a concept or explain what it is and isn’t, but rather we’re simply using data intelligently. We want to make sensible recruitment decisions for my Inter Miami side as I enter the 2022 season in Football Manager 2022. Welcome to Data-led Scouting in Major League Soccer…

Why bother?

Each year, Major League Soccer clubs go through a rebuild of sorts (rebuild: another commonly used term in FM circles) when forming their rosters for the season ahead. With a finite amount of international slots and a salary cap in place, I need to find value when building my squad from within the MLS bubble. Otherwise, I could go over budget very fast, or waste specialised squad slots, if I make rash/biased transfer dealings (e.g. signing a 37-year-old Carlos Tevez as one good/bad example).

So, with a full season’s worth of MLS performance data, I can now pass my save file over to FM Stag…who will drill down into the data to see if there are available players that can be recruited within the internal Major League Soccer system. His expert/unpaid analysis will allow me to recruit during two distinct MLS phases:

The Waiver + Re-Entry Drafts - this phase centres around players whose contracts expire on 31 December 2021. Their clubs will ‘waive’ them, meaning I can apply for them against an ordered draft between other MLS clubs. At a later date, there will be other players who will be expiring that will look to re-enter the league too. Again, an ordered draft will occur where players will either come on existing wages or have brand new contracts. For a concise breakdown of how this all works, please consult this guide from Chris / FMEadster.
So, can Stag provide a shortlist of a few names to look out for during these drafts? Is there value in giving these players another chance in MLS? Stag’s first task in Data-led Scouting is finding domestic players with expiring contracts.
2022 Player Trading. Trading allows me to deal directly with specific clubs for a more targeted approach to player recruitment. I wrote about my experiences of using Trading last time on the blog. So, using a full season of MLS performance data, Stag will provide a few ‘statistically best’ players for three squad positions, which will form part of Inter Miami’s transfer strategy for 2022.

The first of those three positions is Goalkeeper - Nick Marsman has been solid, but does take up an International slot. Is there a better domestic GK out there I can try to get?

The second position is Left Back - We have Joevin Jones as the 1st choice LB, but I noticed he was jaded due to the sheer amount of games he was playing this year. That's only going to get worse in 2022 as we will have CONCACAF to deal with also. So, I would like a back-up Left Back from MLS - who is an attacking outlet through crossing and effective dribbling.

Lastly, the final position I want to trade for in 2022 is the Right Midfielder - I believe Lewis Morgan would have become MLS Player of the Season had it not been for the 11 month injury he received part way through the second half of the season. I therefore need a Right Winger (Wide Midfielder on Attack) who can rotate with Robbie Robinson. I would have an added attraction to anybody who can also play left wing also (IW-A), so two good feet are desirable. Because I have the adjacent central midfielder bombing forward (CM-S with Gets Further Forward), I would like this player to be mentally mature with solid Decisions, Positioning, Teamwork and Work Rate.

Data-led Scouting - FM Stag

Taking on the responsibility of scouting on behalf of a team managed by someone else has its perceived challenges. I don’t select the players, define the tactical shape, nor decide roles or duties on matchday. Nor do I have the emotional attachment to certain players based on watching every match and celebrating each successful phase of play or chastising certain individuals for glaring errors.

I don’t see this as a negative, however. My job here is to see past the expressive element of football and to judge the current Inter Miami playing squad and the wider team by their performance numbers. This is to highlight gaps and then recommend recruitment options who theoretically fill these gaps within the parameters set out by FM Grasshopper.

Analysis of existing team

The first thing I did was set up the Data Hub in a way that primarily gives me a high-level view of how Inter Miami compared against other MLS teams on various offensive and defensive metrics this season. This also allowed me to compare the individual players against those plying their trade at other MLS clubs. This can help in identifying any existing strengths and weaknesses ahead of any scouting assignments.

Defensively

My first thoughts are that while the collective defensive performance has no glaring deficiencies, the team is ninth in the table for tackle success ratio. Also notable is that a high percentage of goals have been conceded from through-balls. This is 25 goals in 49 games, 47.2% of all conceded. Therefore, the most dangerous regular opposition threat is coming down the centre, on the turf, not in the air or on the counter, with incredibly only one goal conceded in 49 games from opposition long balls.

Offensively

Inter Miami have the highest headers won ratio in MLS, but the lowest number of attempted headers per game. This is coupled with the highest cross completion ratio in the league. While crosses and headers are exceptionally productive, they don’t occur nearly enough for this to be hugely impactful to results. This seems more likely a tactical preference. Given the low volume of headers, statistically I think the high success rate might be down to the small sample size and not that the team is blessed with giant target forwards and laser-accurate wingers.

Inter Miami have the highest goals per game ratio and best shot conversion rate in MLS, so attacks are regular and more clinical than their rivals, but the pass completion ratio of 88% across the team is only good enough for 10th in the overall table of 27 teams.

What does this suggest?

This suggests that defensively Miami need more imposing centre backs who are more proficient in winning the ball back in the tackle. They would also benefit from more accurate and creative passers in midfield. Although the attack has delivered excellent numbers that cannot be faulted, the strike force of Nani and Gonzalo Higuain will soon have a combined age of 70. Robbie Robinson may only be 22; but since moving from a striking berth to the right side of midfield in mid-October, he has looked much more confident and natural in that position. Reinforcements needed.

(1) Domestic players with expiring contracts

As a reminder, the brief is:

“Identify players who are eligible to be registered as ‘domestic players’ within the MLS whose contracts are expiring at the end of December 2021. Position and role-agnostic, I am hunting for statistical gems. Those who may provide a low-cost boost to Inter Miami, wherever it can be found”.

There are 67 players who are in this bucket who need our attention. I stuck with players who had played a minimum of 500 minutes this season, otherwise the statistical sample size is simply too small to be truly useful.

For me, the first thing to do is to map out their performance numbers on a scatter plot and see who stands out at first glance. This will compare the outfield players only, which is 59 of the 67. Goalkeeper analysis comes later.

Soon-to-be Free Agents (domestic players)

Attacking Contribution is a calculation of key passes, chances created, successful dribbles, assists, shots on target, goals and xG per 90 plus xG per shot plus adjusted average rating.

Defensive Performance is a calculation of interceptions, tackles, and headers won per 90 /2 plus adjusted average rating. I’d love to include blocks and clearances, but we don’t get straightforward access to those numbers.

A helpful overview, the plot combines these values to give overall general offensive and defensive ratings for each potential target, though each suggestion requires further inspection.

***drumroll*** My outfield recommendations are:

Honourable mentions worth a look are Callum Montgomery (24, CB, Minnesota), Nick DePuy (27, CB, La Galaxy) and Chris Wondolowski (38, AMC/ST, San Jose Earthquakes).

(2) MLS talents for potential future acquisition

As a reminder, the brief is:

“Identify players who are already registered in MLS, regardless of current contract status, who may represent quality improvements to Inter Miami’s squad in the year ahead, trade availability permitting. This is primarily to look for a new Goalkeeper, Left-Back and Right-Winger, but the scope of our search may extend a little further if there any treasures unearthed who stand out from the rough, statistically”.

When scouting for players already in your own division, the Data Hub makes this a lot easier to navigate through. The ‘Player’ tab allows you to compare your players performances to those of their peers in the same league immediately across various metrics. This can lead you to players you may have overlooked who you can then look at more closely. This is one of the methods used to identify the potential targets below.

Goalkeeper Recommendation:

Honourable mentions worth a look are Matt Turner (27, GK, New England Revolution) and Andre Blake (31, GK, Philadelphia Union).

Left-Back Recommendation:

Honourable mentions worth a look are Chase Gasper (25, LB, Minnesota) or Malte Amundsen (23, LB, New York City).

Right-Midfielder Recommendation:

Honourable mentions worth a look are Brooks Lennon (24, RM, Atlanta United) or Ignacio Aliseda (21, RM, Chicago Fire).

Bonus recommendations:

Additional recommendations based on performance statistics from players currently registered at MLS clubs are Franco Fragapane (28, LM, Minnesota), Donovan Pines (23, CB, DC United) and Kacper Przybyłko (28, ST, Philadelphia Union).

Conclusion - FM Grasshopper

Huge (immeasurable) thanks to Stag, who executed this data report expertly and pretty much inline with my vision for this post. Stag has offered a detached/unbiased view when scouting which has been purely led by the statistics, and it shows. Sure, there are names I recognise and would like to have at Inter Miami…but there are also diamonds there in the rough that I certainly would overlook at first glance.

I’ve got three names to look out for during the various end of season post-contract Waiver/Re-entry drafts, with a further three also in consideration. For the 2022 Trades, I’ve got three top targets to fill problem positions, and a further six as back-ups if the AI doesn’t play ball. Furthermore, Stag has cast a light on other positions I could recruit towards with a trio of names as bonus recommendations.

I had planned to withhold this post so that I could also update readers on the drafts/trades, in order to show you how I got on. However, the drafts do not arrive at the same time…and nor will the trading. So, my successes/failures in the market will be demonstrated in a subsequent post during Season 2 of The MLS Save.

Want to keep updated in the meantime? Why not jump into one of the streams Chris (@FMEadster) and I do each week (over on twitch.tv/fm_grasshopper) OR follow me on Twitter (@FM_Grasshopper) - where I will be certain to make noise about any new signing arriving on the Miami coast.

As always, thanks for reading/sharing & caring.

Tony / FM Grasshopper