Today I want to explore something that I have never really thought too deeply about before. When making squad selections or even reviewing whether or not to keep a player, we make assessments as to that player’s value to the team. I have never really considered my thinking beyond the surface level of “is player x better than player y” - and that’s because that is essentially what everything boils down to. What I want to do is to think a bit more forensically about the steps that lead me to the end decision: what makes this player a more attractive option? Are they really a better player (technically speaking) right now or is there something more subconscious at play in my decision making?
WHAT IS ‘UNCONSCIOUS BIAS’?
Being a public sector worker, I have naturally completed my own ‘unconscious bias’ training and am very familiar with what is a very hot topic in spheres of performance and people management. The University of Edinburgh’s Equality, Diversity & Inclusion resources define unconscious bias as:
“The tendency of us as humans to act in ways that are prompted by a range of assumptions and biases that we are not aware of. This can include decisions or actions that we are not consciously aware of, as well as hidden influences on decisions and actions that we believe are rational and based on objective un-biased evidence and experience.”
This is mad, right? Why am I talking about the ethics of equality, diversity & inclusion when I’m playing with the glorified spreadsheet? Well, this is simply because when I stopped to compare Vincenzo Grifo (the subject of this post) with his replacement, I wasn’t totally convinced that I had made the right decision but I couldn’t understand why.
Unconscious bias is often used in conjunction with the term ‘stereotyping’ - however it is important to note the key difference is that unconscious bias explicitly references using assumptions that we are not aware that we are using. I should be clear here and explain that I am not talking about biases towards any real life characteristics of Vincenzo Grifo - if I am totally honest, I had not even heard of him prior to starting this save. I am talking about biases borne out of the way that I play the game and things I see within the game itself.
VINCENZO GRIFO V DATRO FOFANA
It will help to begin by looking at the two players in question. On the left is Vincenzo Grifo and on the right is his replacement, Datro Fofana. I have highlighted the attributes relevant to the role that they are expected to play - Winger (Attack).
Immediately, you can see why I am beginning to question myself. While Fofana certainly has the physical advantage in terms of pace and acceleration, there are a number of trade-offs in the mental aspects of the game where an argument could be made for either player. However, Grifo would appear to be the much superior player technically in addition to being able to offer the advantage of being well rounded in set pieces.
HEADLINE STATS
Beyond the attributes, the next place to look is naturally at those headline stats. As Fofana hasn’t taken much part in any of the cup competitions, I will look solely at the performance in league games.
Grifo has played a few additional games, though largely as a substitute. By virtue of having played less games it is Fofana who has the better Goals/Assists per 90 mins record so far - although with one goal and one assist each it is hardly anything to write home about.
Fofana’s pass completion % is higher but Grifo records a higher number of Key Passes per 90 minutes. It should be noted that Grifo is a set piece taker (corner and freekick) which would likely account for this increase.
Grifo does get more of his shots on target however given they both have the same number of goals, this feels slightly irrelevant.
Both have 87% tackle completion but it is Fofana who leads the way on pure number of tackles won per 90 minutes.
The differences in distance run and average rating are negligible.
ADDITIONAL STATS
Of course, football (and by direct relation FM itself) is no longer simply about counting goals and assists. There is an absolute wealth of data to look at and draw conclusions from.
For the purposes of this exercise, I have chosen to look at the possession related statistics, as they appear to be most relevant to the role selected. Below you will see Vincenzo Grifo’s stats to the left and Datro Fofana’s to the right. Sadly, this area does not allow for filtering by competition so these statistics are based on all competitions.
Fofana leads the way on Chances Created per 90 minutes, Pass completion %, Dribbles per 90 minutes and Progressive Passes per 90 minutes.
Grifo records a higher number of Expected Assists per 90, Cross Completion %, Open Play Key Passes per 90 and Assists per 90.
A proper 50/50 split on who is better here. A few of these stats could be argued as heavily dependent on the team mates around you. The keys to look at for me are Open Play Key Passes (Grifo). Dribbles and Progressive Passes (Fofana).
SO WHERE’S THE BIAS?
We’ve looked at attributes - Grifo is better technically but Fofana has the edge physically. We’ve looked at match based statistics - it was more or less even across those.
In terms of other basic information, both players are exactly the same height (5’11”) with only a few lb of a difference in weight. Both are predominantly right footed with Grifo rated as weak on the left while Fofana is reasonable with his left. I tend to favour players who are both footed - is this the first area of bias?
Both players are capable of playing on either wing or, if required, up front. Grifo has three player traits (Places Shots, Curls Ball, Tries Long Range Free Kicks) while Fofana has two (Moves Into Channels, Like To Beat Opponent Repeatedly). None of this traits are something I go out of my way to look for.
Vincenzo Grifo is in the latter stages of his career at age 30 while Fofana is just 21. I tend to favour younger players as I can plan more long term with them. Is this bias number 2?
Perhaps the biggest bias of all is that Grifo was at the club when I started the save while Fofana is a signing of mine (£3.2m from Molde). It’s only natural to favour your own signings, isn’t it?
WAS I RIGHT TO FAVOUR FOFANA?
My own answer to this is obviously going to be yes. I think the fact that Fofana still has so much time to develop but they are neck and neck in terms of their matchday contributions is proof of this. I always have more of a focus on the long term development. I could sign 5-6 experienced players and do well for a season or two (theoretically, in reality I’m not that good at FM) but I would rather bring in players with potential and build a team that could do even better in a few years time.