"War Chest" - Plazas de Soberanía #FM23

 
 

Previously on Plazas de Soberanía, AD Ceuta FC were promoted to La Liga 2.

Intro

It’s often called a ‘War Chest’ isn’t it? That lump sum of money given to a manager to go out and bullishly spend in the transfer market. AD Ceuta FC were around €1.5m in debt when La Liga 2’s TV revenue trickled south to the Spanish North African semi-exclave in July 2024. €5.7m income would not only wipe the debt clear, but also give the club some ammunition in transfer market. However, as is often the case outside of football, the cost of something expands in order to fit the budget. Or to think of it differently: it’s like how A+ PC games expand in size to fit computers’ ever-increasing storage capacities OR the length of time I give my kids in the morning to get ready for school is immaterial as I will inevitably be screaming at 0830 regardless (!). Back to the FM23 Ceuta context: better players cost more, and better players were needed if AD Ceuta were to settle long-term into our new home of La Liga 2. A transfer kitty of €370k in La Liga 2 is considerably less than it would be in the division below, but I was nevertheless delighted to have it.

This post documents the first 6 months of AD Ceuta FC’s inaugural season in La Liga 2 (and my 3rd with the club in FM23). How did I use the war chest? Is the honeymoon period over in this save? Read on amigo/amiga…

War Chest + Salary Cap

War Chest - As mentioned in the intro, my transfer budget as of July 2024 is €370k. We critically need to recruit three players: a 1st choice centre-back in order to replace the now retired Moisés, a playmaker to take over the reins whenever 34-year-old Adri Cuevas calls it a day and a striker to reduce the match load on 35-year-old Arturo Rodríguez whose powers are now on the wane. In order to meet the club culture, I will give preference towards players under the age of 23.

Salary Cap - readers of last year’s The MLS Save™ may remember how enjoyable I found playing under a salary cap. The good news is that it exists in Spain’s La Liga 2 also: with a €2.3m playing squad salary cap (per annum). Plus all registered players have to earn €77k per annum in wages, meaning that six of my squad players would have to be boosted contractually…costing the club a further €131k in salary per annum. Although there may be a loophole with me registering four of them as B Team players…what a headache we have here.

Although I am under no obligation to do so, I always like to have a self-imposed individual salary cap for a player. It is something I have often done in Football Manager over the years. During the last two seasons, in the Spanish 3rd tier, I set this at around €130/140k per player. Now that we are a level higher, I have set an arbitrary limit of around €200k annual salary per player.

Note - another thing I have to thank The MLS Save™ for is the full adoption of annual salaries. €200k per annum may sound like a hefty wage, but it’s ‘only’ just below a €4k weekly wage…meaning that this is pittance compared to some of our league rivals. Annual is also much easier to work with (and more sensible to use), and I am therefore prepared to die on this hill…so please @ me elsewhere for the impending argument.

Spanish Wonderboys Incoming 🚨

I have got to be happy with the three ‘marquee’ transfers I made. I use marquee loosely, as none are household names in Ceuta just yet…but I am confident they can develop into good players here. They were also names known to me over the process of two years of constant Recruitment Focuses. My muscle memory quickly identified them when I again looked at the RF for players aged 23 or under based in Spain at the end of the 2023/24 season.

Jorge Herrando joins for €100k from Osasuna Promesas. It’s a lot of money for the club to put into a 23-year-old centre-back, but there is a maturity about his game already. I really like his strong Anticipation and I am in love with his aerial strength. At 192cm tall, he’s straight in the match day XI as my left-sided CB to play alongside Robin Lafarge. I’ve put him on a Defensive Positioning individual focus right away to see if we can boost his Marking, Positioning and, more importantly, his Decisions.

Txus Alba joins from the Barcelona’s B Team, for free! As already mentioned, Alba showed up on some previous Recruitment Focuses…however he was also a name that jumped out from the deeper statistical dive I did when rebuilding Ceuta on the onset of Season 2. His loan to Linares during the second half of 2022/23 saw him have a record of 1 in 2 goal involvements (goals + assists) and his name would appear when filtering on Open Play Key Passes Per 90. I had agreed terms for a Free transfer then, only to see Barcelona activate a one-year extension. But in 2024 he is mine! Alba will be end up being the long-term playmaker in my side, and successor to Club Captain: Adri Cuevas. He comes at a cost in wages though, right on the limit of my self-imposed salary cap of €200k per annum. Will a 21-year-old as my highest earner be worth it?

Ethyan - arrives for a club record fee of €115k from Tenerife. His real-life scoring record for Tenerife has seen him be picked up by Atlético Madrid B on loan. The in-game Diego Simeone had taken a fancy to him in 2022/23 FM23 season by subbing him on for 26 first team Atléti matches in La Liga. If he’s good enough for El Cholo, he’s good enough for me. The reason I have gone all out for 22-year-old Ethyan is that he’s a bridge between a 433 and a two-striker system I may end up going for in future seasons (more on this later). For 2024/25, I intend to play Ethyan alongside Arturo Rodríguez as an attacking Inside Forward on the left. In my opinion, he fits this role quite well…and getting a natural striker in this role is my way of trying to get the IF-A to ‘work’ in my tactic. The longer term thinking here is that whenever Arturo does leave Ceuta, I already have a No.9 ready-and-waiting to take centre-stage.

Tactical Consistency: 433

To recap, I used a 442 in Season 1 and a 433 last season (and sometimes 4231). I see myself going back to a two-striker system with Ceuta at some point in this save, but for Season 3 I plan to keep with the 433. Why? Well, the security of a DM may help achieve the new additional club culture added in this year by the board: to play defensively solid football. Admittedly this scares me, being in a higher league and all, but I should not forget that my side had a ridiculous amount of clean sheets last year (23). So, let’s summon the same energy in La Liga 2 and play 433.

As mentioned above, all three new signings can slot right into this shape with no trouble at all. Below is the 433 that I will be using (slight adjustment is that I now use a Ball Playing Defender) and my squad depth screen:

 
 

If you hated yourself enough to count the number of players in that squad depth chart above, you would have noted it being quite short in numbers (total of 18 players). I had hoped to bring in a couple more experienced utility players on loan in the lead up to the season, but I think our small reputation limited our attractiveness. Players either listed for transfer or for loan within LaLiga 2 did not want to come to presumably relegation fodder such as AD Ceuta FC.

Season 2024/25

July - December 2024

With only the 18 core players, AD Ceuta FC walk into LaLiga 2 with a salary bill of €2m - by far the lowest in the league… although I’m unsure how some clubs get round the rules, isn’t there meant to be salary a cap ffs?! Never mind, I would say this makes this season a true underdog story in the making…perhaps on par with Israel FC’s 1-0 away win VS Philistines back in 1000BC if we were to do it. But…can we do it?

Oh fuck, are we in trouble here?

Perhaps it was a stupid decision to use a sizeable chunk of the war chest on just a handful of young players. As you can expect, my Ceuta boys are regularly outclassed on a consistent basis, I even celebrated the 0-0s Vs Badajoz and Tenerife like victories 😂. Those last two months of football in November and December have been especially horrific, just the one goal scored over 630 minutes of football 🤮 Strikers Ethyan and Arturo sit on 4 goals each, who unsurprisingly are also underperforming in their Expected Goals metric (Ethyan -0.78 and Arturo -0.39) with the former converting only 9% of his shots. Ouch. The only glimmer of hope has been a couple of nice Txus Alba goals, which I’ll link below. Unfortunately he has faded somewhat as the season has gone on, in line with the rest of the squad:

Alba Vs Leganes.

Alba Vs Mallorca.

WTF now?

My next step is to head back to the Scouting Centre again to find a/some/any player(s) willing to come and steady the ship here on the North African coast. Two desirable qualities will be: (1) experience and/or (2) ability to score goals. It can’t be that hard, can it?

Thanks for reading/sharing & caring about my journey as I either slide back down to the Spanish third tier OR mount a daring last stand in 2025.

Wish me luck.

Tony / FM Grasshopper

"The Spanish Playoffs" - Plazas de Soberanía #FM23

 
 

Intro

Dear Reader,

Happy soon-to-be New Year to you. The title of today’s post is a massive spoiler in how the 2nd half of my second season with AD Ceuta FC went: we have reached the Spanish Playoffs. Eight teams from two leagues coming together, playing games in neutral venues with some nice little oddities like the ‘higher place’ advantages. AD Ceuta FC’s appearance in the 2023/24 version could simply be a footnote for the history books, or they could take centre stage and upset the odds by reaching LaLiga 2.

Just like Spanish tapas, the 2023/24 Playoffs could also be something I mention in passing as a quick snack. Or it becomes the full meal of a blog post. There is only one way to finding out which one I choose to do. Let’s tuck in…

Season 2023/24

January - June 2024

I have seen a couple of the popular leaders of the FM scene having a hard time with FM23 and slamming it publicly due to defensive decision-making being off. It could be the way I am playing FM23, but I do not feel I am seeing more mistakes than I would do in real-life. In fact, my Ceuta boys love a clean sheet with 0.68 goals conceded per 90 (26 goals against)…we’re officially the best defence in Grupo I. As mentioned last time out, I was adopting a mixture of 4231 / 433 in the second half of the season. A few wobbles in March and April would not prevent us from ending on a strong run with 5 wins on the bounce. Hooray, we’re in the playoffs and bettered on last season’s 6th place.

If I was to look at myself in the mirror (which I often do to be fair), I’d tell myself that the Statistical Rebuild™ has been successful. Most satisfyingly, I’ve managed to circulate Lorenzo González’s 34 goals from Season 1 around my attack. Our supportive Pressing Forward, Arturo Rodríguez, is the main man with 17 goals in the regular campaign. But goals (38 of them) have been spread around the five players regularly occupying the attacking zones of the opposition half:

 

Goals 2023/24 (regular Primera Federación season)

 

Overall, our goal difference is +3 better off from Season 1. We have scored 8 fewer goals this year, but I was always accepting that this may happen seeing as Lorenzo González was a bit of a freak in our league. I would certainly like more goals from my Inside Forward and Mezzala and that’s something I will be trying to address for Season 3. However, eleven fewer goals conceded is what Tony Adams and co. in my backroom staff will be happy with. Here is the final table from Season 2:

 

Top 4 is a trophy, right?

 

The Semi Final Playoff

So, I’m drawn against 3rd place from the adjacent league (Grupo II): Real Sociedad B. I am a bit apprehensive, as a B side can call on much greater resources for a game…but these playoff matches are classed as ‘cup games’ in Football Manager. Shocks can, and will, happen.

My huge semi.

Real Sociedad B holds a ‘higher place’ advantage, having finished in a higher position.  So, if the scores are level after extra time…it’s a win for the Basque club.  AD Ceuta FC must win, and in a way it makes our objective a little easier.  Do I have a variety of routes to goal?  Are there marginal gains I can add in to make the difference?  Are there 1v1 mismatches that could decide the game in our favour?  These are things I must explore in today’s blog post.

Scouting

No scouting or analyst reports…as the Board feels it's too expensive.  So, I wait for the usual Next Opposition report and I give it to my main man: Diego Buitrago (12 in Judging Player Ability and Potential).

This report arrives 5 days before the match and I obviously scrutinise it in-depth.  I am shown a Performance Report, Team Report and an Analyst Report.

  1. Performance Report - From reading this it is clear that Real Sociedad B align with a lot of the averages in Primera Federación Grupo II.  Comparing it with our own general performance, I can see that we’re better passers of the ball…

  2. Team Report - I receive a line-up, which shows the Sociedad B side lining up in a 4231.  The Strengths and Weaknesses are quite enlightening, I’ve plucked a few Sociedad B Strengths which I need to worry about and also a few weaknesses I feel can be targeted (below).

  3. Analyst Report - the data anal report is really lacking.  There’s no fixture data to display (for some reason), and a lot of the information was already in the two items above.  The only extra bit to glean from this report is that Real Sociedad B conceded a large % of goals in the first fifteen minutes (Don’t worry I worked it out: 40% - eight goals conceded in 20 games have come in the first 15 minutes).

Out of all the above, what am I going to do in the huge Semi?  Well, I’ll:

  • Stick with 433 DM Wide.  Sociedad B seems to struggle against it.  We also should be confident of our ball playing ability against them.  I’ll be wary of their top scorer from AMC (Roberto López) but having a DM in the side means I can Man Mark and hopefully take him out of the game.

  • I’ll play the 193cm tall Álvaro Télis to combat the deep crosses.

  • I’ll ask the team to ‘Get Stuck In’, as I feel we can beat Sociedad in the mental and physical battles.  Let’s see if they can cope with it in the first 15 minutes.

  • I’ll ask the team to Trigger Press on the weaker of Sociedad B’s CBs (Josu Rezola)...as the aforementioned Urko González de Zárate does look pretty beasty for our level and would probably cope with it.  This will, more often than not, be carried out by Pressing Forward, Arturo Rodríguez, who matches up very well against Rezola.  So, I’ll throw Hard tackling in for good measure.

Training

At this stage of the season there is little point training to boost attributes or fitness levels.  Instead, we’ll conduct Tactical sessions and anything that can give us a little boost before the big match.  Usually, I would train penalties ahead of a knockout match but given the quirks of the Spanish ‘higher place’ ruling…no game can go to penalties.  Here is what I went with:

The Result

One of the beauties of Football Manager is that you can never quantify exactly how much influence the tweaks you make have on your end result.  I guess the ambiguity is what makes us come back for more…the challenge is knowing some of the game mechanics, but crucially not enough so that we do not ‘hack the game’ and always win.

The tweaks I made hopefully contributed to the 2-0 win Vs Real Sociedad, and in truth we never looked like losing as we controlled a lot of the game (63% ball share).  Arturo Rodríguez scored his 18th goal of the season shortly before half-time, running on to a through ball from my attacking Mezzala, Iker Kortajarena.  I was expecting a second half onslaught from Real Sociedad B…but it never came.  Instead, Adri Cuevas fired in from range in injury time to see Ceuta book their place in the Final.  Two men in their mid-30s firing Ceuta to a 2-0 win, it’s now starting to sound a bit more like an FM Grasshopper save!

Minute 40 - Arturo smashes it home.

Minute 90+3 - Cuevas’ rocket.

The 2023/24 season was not over just yet…

The Final Playoff

My AD Ceuta FC side is one game away from reaching the Spanish second division, but in our way is another B team: Celta B. Worryingly, the Galician side has twice beaten my Ceuta side during this season, so I am aware of the threats they pose. I do not need a scout report to tell me that Iker Losada in the No.10 position supplying striker Lautaro de León is a dream combination in the third division. In my opinion, both are future La Liga players in my save and are thriving this season; especially in Celta B’s Semi Final 3-0 victory against Intercity where de León opened the scoring before a Losada brace. Stopping them is essential if Ceuta are to progress.

Breezy, 19 degrees.

Some positive news though, Ceuta holds the higher place advantage going into the final. So, a draw after either 90 or 120 minutes would be enough to see North African’s best Spanish side promoted.

Scouting

Although Álvaro Télis was the right fit last time round at Centre-Back, I feel I need a stronger defender…both in Mentals and also Marking/Tackling in order to cope with Lautaro De León. So, I call upon the soon-to-be-retiring 34-year-old Moisés. The little comparison graphic that pops up in the Tactic screen when you hover over a player sums it up nicely:

(I hope Moisés can lead us across the Mediterranean Sea and into LaLiga 2)

The scouting report summarises Celta B’s strengths as a fast and agile team. This does not surprise me, seeing that most of their team is aged 19-24 years of age. For this reason, it is their weaknesses that I want to go after:

I have plucked some weaknesses out that clearly show this is a side that can be kicked and mentally subdued. I will continue with the more frequent press and ask the players to get stuck in. I will also instruct the team to tackle harder on the seven players in Celta’s B previous XI who have relatively weak Aggression, Bravery and Strength (more than two attributes below 10).

Training

Not a lot to say on training, other than I thought we’d get the pen and paper out for two sessions on the Monday before we hug one another. On the day before the big match, we’ll practice some set pieces before having a match preview. I like to think this is how Terry Venables approached team training when on the Spanish mainland with Barcelona…

The Result

I’m not a huge lover in too many changes, especially when the performance against Real Sociedad B was so strong. So, other than the Moisés-Télis swap at CB my Ceuta side remains unchanged in the 433. Luckily for myself, the AI seems to be a huge lover in changes. Inexcusably, Iker Losada was called up to Celta’s main squad on either the eve of the match OR the match day itself. Why? No idea. Is it to give the human player a chance? Celta’s main squad has no game scheduled, having finished La Liga exactly a month ago. So, hope springs eternal once more. A 20-year-old Robert Carril filled the place as Celta B’s attacking No.10…Aggression 5, Bravery 4 and Strength 6. He will be murdered.

However, the first wound Celta B would experience would fall on Winger ‘Alfon’ on 14 minutes, my Right Back rightly received a yellow for the assault (and he was instantly told to ease off the tackles). Alfon played through the rest of the game gingerly, but it was yet another route to goal taken away from Celta B as he could only run in straight lines after the incident.

Despite our dominance, Celta B’s only highlight of the 1st half was a huge opportunity from the penalty spot. Ceuta Club Captain Adri Cuevas hacking down a Celta B player on minute 28. Penalty to Celta B…

Minute 29: Leandro saves to keep it 0-0 at HT.

At Half Time, I took a perusal at the match statistics: we were bloody dominant. 16 shots, but only 5 on target. 69% ball share, but zero clear cut chances created. 0-0 is good enough for Ceuta, but way too risky with Lautaro De León still on the pitch. The only team instruction I changed was to ask the players to work the ball into the box. We required only the one goal to take a hold of this tie…

…does this count as working the ball into the box? I’ll take it anyway, Iker Kortajarena makes it 1-0 Ceuta on 53 minutes.

Minute 53: Kortajarena 1-0 Ceuta. “What’s the goalie doing?”

I am led to believe that Kortajarena translates as “Bus” in his native Basque language, and like a bus…his goals arrive in twos. Ironically (is it?) two minutes later than his 1st goal. Ceuta 2-0 Celta B on 55 minutes…

Minute 55: Kortajarena 2-0 Ceuta. “Who wants it more?”

There would be no more goals, as I started to ring the changes and slow the game down from minute 60. The match would finish 2-0, a 23rd clean sheet of the season with De León limited to just the two shots at goal all game. AD Ceuta FC are promoted to LaLiga 2 🍺🍺🍺

We’re Up!

Who knows if this was all down to my tactical tweaks and man-management wizardry…or just the AI being awful in knockout football. I’ll take it. The promotion playoff victory sees the first significant financial boost (+€115k) arrive in the coffers since the sale of Lorenzo González 12 months ago. But we remain debt ridden (-€1.4m balance), meaning it will be another transfer window of frugality as I try my best to now stay up in a superior league.

Can we do it? Feel free to keep following my journey as I progress with this enjoyable save into real-life 2023.

Thanks for reading/sharing & caring,

Tony / FM Grasshopper

"Tiki-Taka Soldier Spy" - Plazas de Soberanía #FM23

 
 

Intro

During a Last 16 match in the 2022 World Cup, Spain attempted 1,050 passes against Morocco with 975 of them succeeding. It was the football from 10-years ago, yet the players to really make it click were no longer in the team. I saw one meme implying that tiki-taka had become tik-tok, with an obvious dig at young players Gavi and Pedri. Harsh, but I can see why Luis Enrique’s approach has so universally slammed after that Morocco penalty exit. It all seemed rather stale.

But is tiki-taka stale in FM too?

Whichever answer I give will obviously be subjective, as it’s formed from my opinion. But seeing that this is my blog, let me explore further. Warning: this is a rather short blog post, to avoid any disappointment, please think of it as an interlude.

Season 2023/24

July - December 2023

On Spain’s North African coastline, there’s a duality happening between the real-life Spain National Team and my AD Ceuta FC FM23 side. Like Luis Enrique, I seem to have built a possession orientated 433, in part due to the Board’s request of more high-tempo pressing football. We’re doing well in a few league metrics, and on paper it’s looking good/exciting:

  • 2nd in possession (60%)

  • 1st in pass completion (89%)

  • 3rd in shots per game (12.78)

  • 3rd in dribbles per game (13.28)

Yet there is a definite spark missing. No doubt about it, sometimes the football is rancid. Despite sitting 3rd in the league at the half way point, I feel we should be doing even better. Those metrics tempered by such a low Conversion rate of 8% (ranked 19th) and with relatively mediocre shots on target ratio of 38% (ranked 11th). I guess the spark I am after is the one that left us 6 months ago: Lorenzo Gonzalez…a striker so good that he almost jumped off the top-right of his xG scatter plot.

Here are the Season 2 results so far and table at the start of our Winter Break:

Season 2.

Seven straight wins saw us become the team to knock-off the summit of the table, which is exactly what has happened as we’ve laboured into December 2023. We need to find that killer instinct once again if we’re going to ever get out of this league. Passing, dribbling and shooting…just isn’t enough against some of the league’s best sides. So, I’m therefore going to look at our strengths and weaknesses to see if we can fine tune things a bit more in order to solidify our promotion challenge. Not a lot needs to change, as mentioned above, we’re doing well in a lot of good metrics [and in a lot of games]…it’s just the Lorenzo spark needs to be re-discovered.

Players

Previous 433 that has been used in this last 6 months can be read here.

  • Inverted Winger (Support)

    My main Inverted Winger, Luismi, tops Chances Created in the league with 1.02 Per 90. Luismi is currently the most creative spark in the front three (5 assists), all for the Pressing Forward upfront. He is one to keep as-is for now.

  • Pressing Forward (Support)

    Seven goals in 16 starts is pretty decent for a supportive Striker tasked with holding up the ball and bringing others into play. The goals are a mix of headers and classy finishing.  The main worry I have is Arturo’s mobility, and he doesn't seem to be working well with the IF-A alongside him (0 assists).

  • Inside Forward (Attack)

    The Inside Forward has good moments, but is not the main scorer of the three…which worries me. Just three goals, when I expected this guy to regularly be on the scoresheet. Liberto, the usual IF, has the trait to Runs With Ball Down Left and in hindsight is better suited to the Winger role than IF. Perhaps one to change.

  • Advanced Playmaker (Support)

    My main playmaker is Adri Cuevas currently holds the best average rating in squad (7.25). His playmaking powers are not being utilised by the players ahead of him though. He has a squad best of 2.29 Open Play Key Passes Per 90 but just two assists for the first half of the season.  Now in his 34th year, his physical attributes are now also on the wane.

  • Mezzala (Attack)

    Another disappointment for goals and assists.  Nowhere near getting advanced enough, and any option seems to fluff changes when they have them. 

Team

What formations do we struggle against? Well, in the seven games we failed to score (four defeats and three 0-0s)…six of them were against the FM23 AI’s flavour of the month: 4231 DM. The only other defeat that wasn’t a 4231 DM was against Real Madrid B’s 433 DM. Ouch. We seem to hate coming against a DM or two. We also seem to hate top 10 teams, with six of the seven blanks coming up against them. Finding a route to goal in these games could see us take control of our title charge. It’s something we need to tweak, and tweak I shall.

Ceuta 4231 Vs 4231 DMs/Top 10 sides.

Crash and burn, we will match the 4231 DMs with a similar shape. Gone is the DM, instead there is an AMC running into channels to give the DM at least one more headache than usual. Summary of changes: IF-A switch to an Attacking Winger, who will cross to an Attacking Target Forward and on-rushing Shadow Striker. The midfield two are more conservative, with a Deep Lying Playmaker and supportive Central Midfielder. I will use this formation against the seven sides I ‘blanked’ in OR when I notice I am struggling against any other DM formation…will it work? Find out next time on the blog.

18 Virtual Months

I outlined my plans during my save intro, and now 18-months into the save I feel I can tick off the 1st Save Objective: Do not get sacked. The remaining objectives are quite long-term, and I very much doubt you will see the below graphic again for a while. So, please take a moment to savour my immediate achievements…

 

Not a real clipboard.

 

With 18 virtual months on the clock, the save will now be on a little hiatus as December is a typically busy month in-real-life. I would therefore like to wish readers a great festive season with friends and family, whilst I hope to be back playing [and writing] in the New Year with more AD Ceuta FC.

Season’s Greetings.

Tony / FM Grasshopper

“Rebuilding Ceuta in a 433” - Plazas de Soberanía #FM23

 
 

Intro

“If one thing had been different, would everything be different today?” Taylor Swift

I’m comfortable in my own Blogging persona to openly write that I believe Taylor Swift to be one of the greatest lyricists of her generation.  Her songs are often about heartache, particularly those tracks found on the surprise lockdown album titled ‘folklore’ which the above quote came from.  The regrets, struggles and detailing of loneliness is what made the series of tracks so awesome, especially in a bloody global pandemic.

The quote above also rang true for me in an FM sense, as I gazed at the final 2022/23 league table of Primera Federación Group 1.  AD Ceuta’s 6th place finish was not enough to grant a playoff berth…but we had come incredibly close.  If some of our early season weaknesses could have been addressed sooner, or a few of those near misses in the final three league games without a win instead gone in…would everything be different today?  Still, 6th is better than anybody predicted…let alone me.  We stayed up: Mission Accomplished.

Yet now, it’s time to rebuild; players are leaving and band aids will not fix bullet sized holes in the squad.  The club needs to be a shrewd operator given its financial woes, and the Board/Supporters will naturally start to want more from us. So, we will have a tactical shift for Season 2.

It’s time to rebuild…are you with me?

Season 2022/23

January - June 2023

After all the clean sheets from the 1st half of the season, we decided to keep just five more for the remainder of the season.  The downturn in form is probably a mixture of injuries and declining mobility of some of our older heads, in particular soon-to-be retiring 1st choice CB Carasco.  Similarly upfront Salhi started to wane as the season went on, with my Assistant frequently reminding me that the end is nigh for my Moroccan Prince (the highlights I was watching also supported this theory).

Nevertheless, goals continued to flow in from Lorenzo Gonzalez, who ended up with 32 league goals over 2022/23…with 20 league goals arriving in the second half of the season:

Season 1 ✅

While we’re here, let's talk more about ‘Golzalez’…

Lorenzo, acquired 0.39 xG per 90 more than the average striker in the league, with his goals per 90 of 0.98 being over double that of the league’s average.  It’s clear to me that without him we would be nowhere near playoff contention.

Lorenzo Goals -xGoals Per 90 🔥

Yet, a Lorenzo Gonzalez-less season beckons in 2023/24.  With one year left on his contract, and after the season he had, it was inevitable that an AI club would come calling.  After negotiating an acceptable transfer fee (€325k) with both Player and Agent, the AI bid…but not at the values I originally wanted.  Eventually I settled on this bid from Basel, which sees Lorenzo return to Switzerland:

Lorenzo sale.

Maybe one day the sale will end up being closer to the €325k I wanted, after income from the Friendly and potential % of any profit is received…but at least this allows Ceuta to claw back closer to break even in the budget (now ‘just’ the €900k in debt!).

This leads me on to rebuilding Ceuta…

“Rebuilding Ceuta in a 433”

Why ‘rebuild’, instead of continuing with the 442?  Good question, here is why I have decided to switch:

  1. Losing a 30-goals-a-season Striker means I should look to spread the goals around the starting XI a bit more.  So, instead of a 442 supplying the one attack minded Striker…I want to move towards a front three.

  2. The Ceuta Board adjusted the club culture and now want higher-tempo pressing football from 2023/24.  This will require a tactical shift, because Ceuta are ranked 16th (out of 20) for Opposition Passes Per Defensive Action (4.40 per match) meaning the opposition are making a fair amount of passes before engaging in a defensive action.  My remedy for this is to have more of a higher press, where we force the opposition into mistakes in their own half.  An advanced trio of forwards can help with this press, as my ‘first defenders’.

  3. 15 players will be leaving, either as Free Transfers, loans expiring or retirements.  This leaves only 7 players for the 2023/24 season still on the books at AD Ceuta…so I may never get a better opportunity to reshape the playing squad on such a large scale again.

  4. I always envisaged a shift in tactic as we improved the squad anyway.  Perhaps I would be inclined to stick with the 442 for a couple more seasons, if neither of the three factors above came about…but here we are.  Let’s go 433.

Ceuta Culture Club.

Data Analysis

I’m using 2022/23 season player data from Spain (a loaded league, duh) in order to recruit targets, and I’m focussing on a few key metrics for each of the positions that need filling. This post was already in progress when FM Stag released his ‘What does “good” look like’, an article born from the deep questioning of other fellow FM Friend Chris/FM Eadster. Stag’s post was really helpful in terms of cross-checking the High-Medium-Low scores of certain metrics when analysing my data dump from FM. I implore you to go and read that, but also note that the below is purely my subjective opinion in what I want from my roles. To provide an example of what I am on about, I’ve rated Headers Won Per 90 a key metric to rate Strikers on. Some would not…and that’s totally fine. The reason I value this metric, on this occasion, is because I hope it highlights the odd battering ram in the data…which will complement the lone Support duty Pressing Forward role.

Outside of the metrics, I will also recruit with a slight preference for players under the age of 23, so that I can meet another of the Club Cultures. I would not go out of my way and filter on younger players, but I’ll be seeing if a couple of sub-23s are performing.

As you can see, it’s quite a rebuild with seven roles requiring immediate recruitment.  I would even go as far as saying that a further five utility players would also be needed to supplement the below squad players (and any youth products from the 2023 intake I can use)…

The Filter and Salary Parameter:

Based: in Spain

Minutes: at least 1,000 minutes

Expiring: 3 months

Salary offered limited to €125,000 per p/a

Around 50% of my current league’s players still do not want to come to Ceuta.  I know this because of the total number of my ‘Players In Range’ as shown in the Scouting Centre (with Interest in as ‘Dubious’). When unchecked, the player count would instantly double.  “Haters gonna hate”.

Another thing I found here is the wage demands of certain high performing players who would consider a move.  I was fixed on my cap (although I did have to take over and accept one player at €130k p/a when a DoF contract negotiation failed).  At my level, I’ve found I’ve had to compensate on a lot of things…if one of the three metrics assigned to roles isn’t perfect, the player remains a target.  “Beggars can’t be choosers”.

 
 

The Signings

God Bless Per 90 stats in FM23. In total, nine players were signed in the off-season: five free transfers, three players [from the Lorenzo money] and one loan.  Here are four I am the happiest with:

Javi Cabezas (33-years-old) - Free Transfer - From the players expiring in 3 months, Javi Cabezas topped the league with Open Play Key Passes Per 90 (2.2), and ranks 11th in Dribbles Per 90.  He assisted 10 times in the same league Ceuta find themselves in, and now arrives on a one-year deal.  He can play in the 433 as an Inside Forward (on the left), an Inverted Winger (on the right) and could even re-train as my central Advanced Playmaker.  Versatility in the lower leagues is good!

Data from contracts expiring in Primera Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

  • 2.2 Open Play Key Passes Per 90

  • 2.4 Dribbles Per 90

  • 10 Assists

Mangel (21-years-old) - Free Transfer - In keeping with the versatility theme, this youngster can play naturally across the spine of the midfielder (CB, MC, AMC).  Mangel played a full season in the tier below Ceuta’s (31 appearances) and has a broad spectrum of lovely defensive statistics: 11.9 Pressures Per 90, 1.81 Tackles Per 90 and 3.76 Interceptions Per 90.  At 188cm tall, I would like him to sit as my CM-D anchor for the season, but I also have the backup option of slotting him into the CB positions as a ball player.

Data from contracts expiring in Segunda Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

  • 11.9 Pressures Per 90

  • 1.81 Key Tackles Per 90

  • 3.76 Interceptions Per 90

Pau Martínez (22-years-old) - Free Transfer - Pau Martínez can play in either wide position, and featured in the same Spanish tier as Ceuta for 2022/23 with 15 starts and 18 substitutions.  Despite only 1 goal and 3 assists in these games, I believe there is untapped potential here.  Pau was ranked 1st in Crosses Completed Per 90 (3.0), 4th in Dribbles Per 90 (3.01), and has a solid Open Play Key Passes Per 90 score of 1.51.

Data from contracts expiring in Primera Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

  • 3.0 Crosses Completed Per 90

  • 3.01 Dribbles Per 90.

  • 1.51 Open Key Passes Per 90

Arturo Rodríguez (34-year-old) - €20k fee from Sanse - I need to replace Lorenzo’s 32 league goals, and Arturo Rodríguez is not going to do that on his own…but I do hope he can lead the line as our Pressing Forward and bring others into play.  Arturo makes the switch from league rivals Sanse, and is ranked 2nd in Headers Won Per 90 (14.95) and 1st in the % of those headers being won (64%) in the league.  Additionally, he is ranked 6th for Shots Per 90 (3.36).  His conversion rates are somewhat of a worry though (47% on target and 11% conversion rate)...but it does show he is accustomed to moving into shooting positions with ease.

Data from Primera Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

  • 14.95 Headers Won Per 90

  • 64% Headers Won

  • 3.36 Shots Per 90

The 433

Some of the football played during the second half of my Beta save with Lanús was rather breath-taking. I think going back to this is a good starting point to build from, however I am adapting it in line with the 2023/24 revised Board Culture in order to play more ‘higher tempo pressing football’. I’ll be keeping an eye on our OPPDA as Season 2 progresses and may have to make it more aggressive/press heavy.

Ceuta 433 [concept], still not settled on defensive roles.

TL;DR

I have kept Ceuta up with a 442, and have since overhauled the squad through the use of data analysis + scouting reports…but will it all be worth it?  I have sold my best player and we’re switching to a 433 to meet the Board’s vision of higher tempo pressing football.  If many things are different this season, will everything be different?  Let’s see.

Thanks for reading/sharing/caring,

Tony / FM Grasshopper