Are prices in FM inflated? How can we deflate them?

Are prices in FM inflated? I see the question time and time again on the SI forums and has led me to focus this week's blog and (hopefully) going some way to dispel this myth. Prices are NOT inflated. This week, I hope to encourage other players to adapt their playstyle in order to deflate transfer prices.

Before we begin, let's take a moment to admire the complexity of the real world transfer system. Players can be signed on trial, on loan, co-owned, loaned with an option to buy, signed on a Bosman ruling, pay as you play, agent ownerships etc etc. There are so many possibilities for a player to move from A to B. This is all played out in hundreds of leagues in many nations...all containing certain legal rules and nuances.

On the most part, Football Manager does an admiral job. After playing every iteration of Sports Interactive's Football Management simulations since 1997, FM15 is by far the most accurate version. Now let's address the issue of price inflation by answering the second title question - how can we deflate the insane prices that AI managers sometimes throw back at us in FM15. Follow 3 simple steps:

Step 1: Avoid 'cold bidding' & make sure you scout

Not sure if 'cold bidding' is an FM term, but it is now. Avoid bidding for a player without extensive research into him and his current situation. The most organised clubs in real life work as much as 12 months ahead of time, sometimes even longer. There is no reason why your Football Manager team should be different.

The first thing you ought to do is scout that player, either with your scouting network, or in person. Remember: as managers we can view other AI vs AI games, so watching a player in the match engine will prove more fruitful in judging a player's current ability than any scout report.

Step 2: Find out what his head is like (and then get in it)!

I cannot stress the importance of the hidden mental stats that are behind every player, stats such as adaptability and consistency. These have a big role in whether your new signing will be a success. These are hinted at in the scout reports and it's vital they are read and understood. It will also indicate the level of success that my next move will have: declaring media interest. Loyal, reserved players are less likely to react favourably to the 'Declare Media Interest' option. But those with ambition (especially if you're at a more reputable club) will do all sorts of things to help you deflate that transfer price. Players may end up missing training and even request to leave.

View fullsize

View fullsize

Step 3: Eat, sleep, negotiate, repeat

AI managers do not like unhappy players. Once the form drops, training sessions are missed and/or a transfer request has been accepted, then it is time to make the 'enquiry'. Again, like declaring a media interest, this has the possibility of disrupting a player further. 

This process may take several months but with a bit of luck the selling club may be agreeable to a transfer. Here is where you need to negotiate, making good use of all the options available to you. Such as:

• Additional fees (Monthly instalments, Fees after or per league/intl appearance, minimum league appearances etc)
• Players to exchange
• Clauses (loan backs, % of future sales, buy back agreements)

Use as much of the above in your negotiations. Just like the scouting in Step 1, these negotiations should take time and demand patience...just like in real life.

By following the 3 steps to success, I am certain that you will be able to get your man for a more reasonable price. Once everything is sorted and that player is now in your possession, then the real fun of management can begin...

FM Grasshopper

Two footedness in FM - a double edged sword?

This week's blog discusses two footedness in Football Manager and why it should be carefully considered in FM16.  I also include a handy summary of the most two footed (elite) players in FM15.

In real life
Before we begin, let's be clear on one vital thing: being two-footed makes a player better in real life AND in Football Manager (although this blog will discuss the problems it can bring in FM).  There is a clear advantage for those players who can control the ball with the foot that is the farthest away from the opponent. Those milliseconds saved can be spent finding a more incisive pass or scoring a goal. If given the riches that Pelligrini and Van Gaal currently hold, my dream team would be full of ambidextrous players from Goalkeeper to Goal Poachers. 11 Santi Cazorlas:

In FM
However despite my opening paragraph, I would not want a full 11 of ambidextrous players in my Football Manager team. Now I need to start by introducing current ability and potential ability before I ramble. Current ability (CA) is how good a player is rated from 1-200, this number will influence the distribution of player attributes and how they perform in the FM match engine. Potential ability (PA) is how good a player can become, equal to their current ability to 200.

So with this in mind, let's introduce Player A who is left footed but with a disastrous right foot (20/0) and Player B who is either footed (20/20), they are both Strikers. If these two players were to have the same CA and PA then you would be surprised by the results, as Player A would display higher player attributes.  If they both had the same attributes, Player B would be a better player and would require a higher CA.  The reason Player B attributes are lower is because we have given him an extra advantage, but we have not boosted his CA to account for that advantage. 

Out of these two players I would prefer the two footed player even if there was a 5-6 points swing in the Finishing stat. Let's imagine Player A with perfect finishing of 20 Vs our Player B with 15. Within the FM match engine Player A needs a very specific condition for him to convert - it needs to be on his good side. For Player B, any space in the box is likely to be a goal scoring chance. It does matter which side the defender channels him down or which foot the ball lands at, he can lash an accurate shot towards goal with any foot.

So why on earth do I NOT want a full 11 of ambidextrous players in my Football Manager team?!? Well there is one major flaw (in my opinion) from Sports Interactive. The reduction in player attributes affects not only technical attributes but also mental and physical stats. Essential attributes like Determination and Natural Fitness could be affected, in my opinion this is not right. Why would having two good feet affect how determined my player is? Or how quickly he can recover between games?

I choose Player B, any day of the week, because his ambidexterity gives him that vital advantage in the final third. But would I want the same advantage for my Goalkeeper or Limited ball playing Centre Back? The answer is no. I would rather have those players' attribute points in specialised stats like Concentration and Strength. This is why you should focus the two footedness of your team in player roles that you think make a deciding difference in your tactical system (and not be overly concerned about having two footed players in every position). I am already starting to think about this for my Grasshopper FM16 save and I am fortunate to have a couple of two footed players in the team: Caio (my Enganche 16/20) and Moanes Dabbur (my main striker20/17). Both roles will maximise the advantage of being able to use either foot. 

Here now is a list of those elite players who are best suited to make use of their two footedness:

The top 10 'World Class' ambidextrous players (who have ≥ 18 in either foot)
1.    Jerome Boateng (18/20)
2.    Santi Cazorla (19/20)
3.    Pedro (19/20)
4.    Francesco Totti (18/20)
5.    Adriano (20/18) - of Barcelona
6.    Hernanes (19/20)
7.    Danny (18/20) - of Zenit
8.    Julian Draxler (18/20)
9.    Heung-Min Son (18/20)
10.    Gylfi Sigurðsson (18/20)

(Numbered by their CA in FM15, July 2015)

Return of the Enganche

There was a time, not so long ago, that the laziest player in a team of 11 players was the most loved and valuable.  Cherished by not how many kilometres he covered or how many sprints were made in 90 minutes.  These players could simply turn up and show their craft, knowing that the other squad members would carry them.  These were the playmakers.

A certain Pep Guardiola, with his dominant Barcelona teams from 2008, put the final nail in their coffin.  Barcelona won every trophy possible – deploying a high pressing tempo games that required players to win the ball back within 6 seconds (below).  From then on, players of all ilk were expected to press, press and press.  Even players like Lionel Messi were expected to sacrifice a part of their natural game for the team.

How Barcelona Players Get The Ball - The 6 Seconds Rule

However, football is cyclical in nature.  What was considered the right way in 2008 will slowly change and there is hope (from me at least), that we will one day see the traditional playmakers of old grace the game at the top level again. Players such as Álvaro Recoba and Juan Román Riquelme, who had the dribbling, first touch and vision to change the game at any moment. These players were not athletes, they were artists.

So with this in mind, what will I do in FM16 with Grasshopper Club Zürich (GCZ)? Answer: I am going to do my upmost to bring back the playmaker(!).  Luckily for me, we now have a dedicated player role for this very special kind of player: the Enganche.  The Enganche literally translates to the ‘hook’ in Latin American Spanish.  The role’s purpose is an ode to Juan Román Riquelme – receive the ball from a central pocket and distribute it accordingly.  The role is not expected to press within 6 seconds or make any kind of run to create space for others, they are there to simply be loved through what they do best: dictate and pass.

Limited physical attributes such as acceleration, natural fitness and pace will not hinder a player within the Enganche role.  It can allow players who are not suited to closing down the opposition to flourish.  This is particularly appealing to me, because unlike Pep Guardiola, I do not like fitting ‘square pegs in round holes’.  As GCZ manager, I also do not have the luxury of a pool of players who all want to collectively press and harass the opposition and I certainly cannot attract these players to a team that finished so lowly in the league last season (8th).  

Luckily for me, I have a player that I believe can become the Enganche.  Meet Caio César Alves dos Santos, also known simply as ‘Caio’.  For the Swiss Super League, Caio possess good technical stats who is best suited to the AMC position (see below).

View fullsize

Caio from Day 1 (Football Manager 2015)

In order to use this specialist role I am expecting an enormous amount of tinkering during pre-season.  Not only do I have to find a way to incorporate both the Enganche AND a Deep Lying Playmaker (see last week’s Blog).  I also need to ensure that their passes (both short and direct) are found by teammates who are expect to turn opportunities to goals.  Once FM16 is out, I can provide in-depth analysis what I have done and how I (hopefully) cracked it.  Wish me luck…

FM Grasshopper

Kim Källström in focus - GCZ's new DLP?

Kim Källström entered my consciousness in the early 'noughties'  as one of my first signings for The Arsenal back in my Championship Manager 01/02 save.   Kim developed into the finest AMC that North London has ever seen (move over Brady, George, Bergkamp et al...Kim was in town).  His career at Arsenal was littered with league titles and European success.  He was the heartbeat of my attacking 5-2-1-2 formation.  A conjurer of assists and a weaver of dreams.

Yet in real life I had to wait until 2006 until I watched a full 90mins (technically 120 mins) featuring Kim.  This was a France Cup tie:  Rennes against Montpellier, where Kim scored Rennes' 5th goal in extra time.  I watched it with my mum that day on Eurosport UK, and I took great pleasure in telling her the ins and outs of Kim's game.  His assists, long shots and the way he gloriously dictates play.  My mum was left bewildered with my obvious man lust.

Moving forward 8 years and I finally got to see Kim in the flesh playing for my beloved Arsenal (25 March 2014, Arsenal 2-2 Swansea).  Was I dreaming?  Apparently not, as Kim came on that day for an 11 minute cameo.  The most striking thing that I noticed was that, in 8 years, Kim's game was seemingly unchanged.  He was tidy in possession and showed a keen eye for a pass.

Now fast forwarding a little more to the Present Day, I am once again reunited with Kim at Grasshopper Club Zürich (GCZ) .  This feels like the final hurrah in [our] my fictional manager/player relationship, which has spanned almost 15 years of [our] my life.  So what does Kim Källström bring to GCZ in FM16?

It's difficult to say exactly what he will bring in terms of player stats (unless I bribe Swiss FM researcher, @aulit_z, for some clues) but we are safe to assume that Kim will be the Deep Lying Playmaker of previous FM editions:

View fullsize

Kim's arrival has seen GCZ line up as a 4-2-3-1 in the first few weeks of the season, being partnered by Marko Basic - a new signing from Lugano.  This combination is currently working in real life and something I may look to replicate in FM16.  However, do I give Kim a defensive of supportive DLP role?

Looking at his stats above.  Kim posses good defensive DLP traits; he has good passing combined with positioning, teamwork and vision.  He also has a helpful PPM of 'Tries Killer Ball Often', something that is crucial in the DLP role.  He could also contribute further up the pitch in a supportive role, however I have a slight reluctance due to his Off The Ball currently set at '10' in FM15.

If we are to use Kim as a DLP, we also need to be confident in Marko Basic's role as a defensive central midfielder.  This is because they represent the deepest pair in a 4-2-3-1 formation and need to be primarily compact & defensive.  If I use Kim to his best ability I will need somebody who can defend and recycle possession - think of it as a Pirlo/Gattuso relationship.  Recruitment in pre-season in this area should definitely be a focus for me.

Kim will not be the swashbuckling AMC of CM 01/02, but he represents GCZ's most valuable asset - especially after being given a 3 year contract expiring in 2018.  So now, after 15 years since gracing the Highbury grass, the challenge in FM16 is to make him the heartbeat of my team once again.

FM Grasshopper

Why Grasshopper Club Zürich (GCZ) in FM16?

The title question is a legitimate one.  Grasshopper Club Zürich, or GCZ as they are known, are a giant of Swiss football...yet face an enormous challenge to bring back the glory days of previous title wins.  27 title wins to be precise, dating as far back as 1898 and as recent as 2003.

Stadium

GCZ used to play at Hardtrum, a 1929 constructed stadium with a 17,666 capacity, but finances and low attendances saw this stadium demolished from the 2007/08 season.  Since then, GCZ have had a bittersweet relationship with FC Zürich and now ground share at the Letzigrund.  For all intents and purposes, this remains FC Zürich's spiritual home and not GCZ's.

A  'Stadion Zürich' is proposed on the old Hardtrum site, which would see GCZ relocate to a new circa 20,000 stadium but faced a 50.8% refusal in a local referendum.  One key personal motivation in taking on the GCZ challenge, and answering the title question, is the sense of achievement at bringing GCZ 'home'.  To do this however, certain amounts of wizardy are needed in the club's finances...

Finances

Since GCZ's  2002/2003 title winning season, FC Basel have become the dominate force in Swiss football (9 times league winners) and to a lesser extent FC Zürich (3 times league winners) and BSC Young Boys (5 times runner up).  The toll is slowly starting to show on the GCZ squad and finances.

View fullsize

As of August 2015, not only are GCZ 70% less of the market value of FC Basel (£52.9m/€73.47), they are also £21.8m/€30.28m behind BSC Young Boys [based on transfermarkt.co.uk].

Squad

This decline has in part led to a reduction in playing staff and the ability to keep hold of established stars. GCZ now have the smallest and youngest squad in the entire Swiss Super League (10 teams).  This will notably heighten the GCZ challenge in FM16.

The standout player is obviously an FM legend: Kim Kallstrom of Sweden (33 years old next week).  Kim has signed a contract until 2018, meaning that he will be the player to build around in this season's FM16.  He has a range of passing and an uncanny knack of finding teammates at set pieces.  If there was ever a deep-lying playmaker to build around, it's Kim.

The other standout established players are Yoric Ravet (25 years, contracted until 2017) and Caio (29 years, contracted until 2018), who will be expected to make significant contributions offensively to the team in the 15/16 year.

Beyond this, the team is largely young.  Upcoming talents to be nurtured are Shani Tarashaj (20 years), Munas Dabbur (23 years) and Levent Gülen (21 years).  All should make the step up this year to replace personnel who were sold last year.

So, why Grasshopper Club Zürich?  Well the answer simply  lies in the challenge.  Knocking FC Basel off their throne will be enjoyable, but there are also long term challenges such as a potential stadium move, improving finances and seeing the young team reach their full potential.  Make no mistake, this will be a hard FM challenge...