Previously on Plazas de Soberanía, a long unbeaten run had propelled AD Ceuta FC into 5th place of Primera Federación Grupo I.

Intro

“If one thing had been different, would everything be different today?” Taylor Swift

I’m comfortable in my own Blogging persona to openly write that I believe Taylor Swift to be one of the greatest lyricists of her generation.  Her songs are often about heartache, particularly those tracks found on the surprise lockdown album titled ‘folklore’ which the above quote came from.  The regrets, struggles and detailing of loneliness is what made the series of tracks so awesome, especially in a bloody global pandemic.

The quote above also rang true for me in an FM sense, as I gazed at the final 2022/23 league table of Primera Federación Group 1.  AD Ceuta’s 6th place finish was not enough to grant a playoff berth…but we had come incredibly close.  If some of our early season weaknesses could have been addressed sooner, or a few of those near misses in the final three league games without a win instead gone in…would everything be different today?  Still, 6th is better than anybody predicted…let alone me.  We stayed up: Mission Accomplished.

Yet now, it’s time to rebuild; players are leaving and band aids will not fix bullet sized holes in the squad.  The club needs to be a shrewd operator given its financial woes, and the Board/Supporters will naturally start to want more from us. So, we will have a tactical shift for Season 2.

It’s time to rebuild…are you with me?

Season 2022/23

January - June 2023

After all the clean sheets from the 1st half of the season, we decided to keep just five more for the remainder of the season.  The downturn in form is probably a mixture of injuries and declining mobility of some of our older heads, in particular soon-to-be retiring 1st choice CB Carasco.  Similarly upfront Salhi started to wane as the season went on, with my Assistant frequently reminding me that the end is nigh for my Moroccan Prince (the highlights I was watching also supported this theory).

Nevertheless, goals continued to flow in from Lorenzo Gonzalez, who ended up with 32 league goals over 2022/23…with 20 league goals arriving in the second half of the season:

While we’re here, let's talk more about ‘Golzalez’…

Lorenzo, acquired 0.39 xG per 90 more than the average striker in the league, with his goals per 90 of 0.98 being over double that of the league’s average.  It’s clear to me that without him we would be nowhere near playoff contention.

Yet, a Lorenzo Gonzalez-less season beckons in 2023/24.  With one year left on his contract, and after the season he had, it was inevitable that an AI club would come calling.  After negotiating an acceptable transfer fee (€325k) with both Player and Agent, the AI bid…but not at the values I originally wanted.  Eventually I settled on this bid from Basel, which sees Lorenzo return to Switzerland:

Maybe one day the sale will end up being closer to the €325k I wanted, after income from the Friendly and potential % of any profit is received…but at least this allows Ceuta to claw back closer to break even in the budget (now ‘just’ the €900k in debt!).

This leads me on to rebuilding Ceuta…

“Rebuilding Ceuta in a 433”

Why ‘rebuild’, instead of continuing with the 442?  Good question, here is why I have decided to switch:

1. Losing a 30-goals-a-season Striker means I should look to spread the goals around the starting XI a bit more.  So, instead of a 442 supplying the one attack minded Striker…I want to move towards a front three.

2. The Ceuta Board adjusted the club culture and now want higher-tempo pressing football from 2023/24.  This will require a tactical shift, because Ceuta are ranked 16th (out of 20) for Opposition Passes Per Defensive Action (4.40 per match) meaning the opposition are making a fair amount of passes before engaging in a defensive action.  My remedy for this is to have more of a higher press, where we force the opposition into mistakes in their own half.  An advanced trio of forwards can help with this press, as my ‘first defenders’.

3. 15 players will be leaving, either as Free Transfers, loans expiring or retirements.  This leaves only 7 players for the 2023/24 season still on the books at AD Ceuta…so I may never get a better opportunity to reshape the playing squad on such a large scale again.

4. I always envisaged a shift in tactic as we improved the squad anyway.  Perhaps I would be inclined to stick with the 442 for a couple more seasons, if neither of the three factors above came about…but here we are.  Let’s go 433.

Data Analysis

I’m using 2022/23 season player data from Spain (a loaded league, duh) in order to recruit targets, and I’m focussing on a few key metrics for each of the positions that need filling. This post was already in progress when FM Stag released his ‘What does “good” look like’, an article born from the deep questioning of other fellow FM Friend Chris/FM Eadster. Stag’s post was really helpful in terms of cross-checking the High-Medium-Low scores of certain metrics when analysing my data dump from FM. I implore you to go and read that, but also note that the below is purely my subjective opinion in what I want from my roles. To provide an example of what I am on about, I’ve rated Headers Won Per 90 a key metric to rate Strikers on. Some would not…and that’s totally fine. The reason I value this metric, on this occasion, is because I hope it highlights the odd battering ram in the data…which will complement the lone Support duty Pressing Forward role.

Outside of the metrics, I will also recruit with a slight preference for players under the age of 23, so that I can meet another of the Club Cultures. I would not go out of my way and filter on younger players, but I’ll be seeing if a couple of sub-23s are performing.

As you can see, it’s quite a rebuild with seven roles requiring immediate recruitment.  I would even go as far as saying that a further five utility players would also be needed to supplement the below squad players (and any youth products from the 2023 intake I can use)…

The Filter and Salary Parameter:

Based: in Spain

Minutes: at least 1,000 minutes

Expiring: 3 months

Salary offered limited to €125,000 per p/a

Around 50% of my current league’s players still do not want to come to Ceuta.  I know this because of the total number of my ‘Players In Range’ as shown in the Scouting Centre (with Interest in as ‘Dubious’). When unchecked, the player count would instantly double.  “Haters gonna hate”.

Another thing I found here is the wage demands of certain high performing players who would consider a move.  I was fixed on my cap (although I did have to take over and accept one player at €130k p/a when a DoF contract negotiation failed).  At my level, I’ve found I’ve had to compensate on a lot of things…if one of the three metrics assigned to roles isn’t perfect, the player remains a target.  “Beggars can’t be choosers”.

The Signings

God Bless Per 90 stats in FM23. In total, nine players were signed in the off-season: five free transfers, three players [from the Lorenzo money] and one loan.  Here are four I am the happiest with:

Javi Cabezas (33-years-old) - Free Transfer - From the players expiring in 3 months, Javi Cabezas topped the league with Open Play Key Passes Per 90 (2.2), and ranks 11th in Dribbles Per 90.  He assisted 10 times in the same league Ceuta find themselves in, and now arrives on a one-year deal.  He can play in the 433 as an Inside Forward (on the left), an Inverted Winger (on the right) and could even re-train as my central Advanced Playmaker.  Versatility in the lower leagues is good!

Data from contracts expiring in Primera Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

• 2.2 Open Play Key Passes Per 90

• 2.4 Dribbles Per 90

• 10 Assists

Mangel (21-years-old) - Free Transfer - In keeping with the versatility theme, this youngster can play naturally across the spine of the midfielder (CB, MC, AMC).  Mangel played a full season in the tier below Ceuta’s (31 appearances) and has a broad spectrum of lovely defensive statistics: 11.9 Pressures Per 90, 1.81 Tackles Per 90 and 3.76 Interceptions Per 90.  At 188cm tall, I would like him to sit as my CM-D anchor for the season, but I also have the backup option of slotting him into the CB positions as a ball player.

Data from contracts expiring in Segunda Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

• 11.9 Pressures Per 90

• 1.81 Key Tackles Per 90

• 3.76 Interceptions Per 90

Pau Martínez (22-years-old) - Free Transfer - Pau Martínez can play in either wide position, and featured in the same Spanish tier as Ceuta for 2022/23 with 15 starts and 18 substitutions.  Despite only 1 goal and 3 assists in these games, I believe there is untapped potential here.  Pau was ranked 1st in Crosses Completed Per 90 (3.0), 4th in Dribbles Per 90 (3.01), and has a solid Open Play Key Passes Per 90 score of 1.51.

Data from contracts expiring in Primera Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

• 3.0 Crosses Completed Per 90

• 3.01 Dribbles Per 90.

• 1.51 Open Key Passes Per 90

Arturo Rodríguez (34-year-old) - €20k fee from Sanse - I need to replace Lorenzo’s 32 league goals, and Arturo Rodríguez is not going to do that on his own…but I do hope he can lead the line as our Pressing Forward and bring others into play.  Arturo makes the switch from league rivals Sanse, and is ranked 2nd in Headers Won Per 90 (14.95) and 1st in the % of those headers being won (64%) in the league.  Additionally, he is ranked 6th for Shots Per 90 (3.36).  His conversion rates are somewhat of a worry though (47% on target and 11% conversion rate)...but it does show he is accustomed to moving into shooting positions with ease.

Data from Primera Federación (at least 1,000 minutes played in 2022/23):

• 14.95 Headers Won Per 90

• 64% Headers Won

• 3.36 Shots Per 90

The 433

Some of the football played during the second half of my Beta save with Lanús was rather breath-taking. I think going back to this is a good starting point to build from, however I am adapting it in line with the 2023/24 revised Board Culture in order to play more ‘higher tempo pressing football’. I’ll be keeping an eye on our OPPDA as Season 2 progresses and may have to make it more aggressive/press heavy.

TL;DR

I have kept Ceuta up with a 442, and have since overhauled the squad through the use of data analysis + scouting reports…but will it all be worth it?  I have sold my best player and we’re switching to a 433 to meet the Board’s vision of higher tempo pressing football.  If many things are different this season, will everything be different?  Let’s see.

Thanks for reading/sharing/caring,

Tony / FM Grasshopper